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Israelis, Palestinians wary of proposed temporary state


© St. Petersburg Times
published May 11, 2003

JERUSALEM - It would be one of the odder countries in history, on scattered patches of land with zigzagging borders, ringed by foreign troops, without a capital and less than full sovereignty.

Yet such a "Palestinian state with provisional borders" is a centerpiece of the new Mideast peace plan, perhaps the one idea that makes this prescription for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict different from its many predecessors.

International mediators, who wrote the "road map" plan, optimistically envision the ministate by as early as the end of this year. They hope it will give Palestinians a sense of progress toward real independence - they would get international recognition and perhaps U.N. membership - and reassure Israel it has nothing to fear from Palestinian sovereignty.

It appears to be an enticing offer. But many Palestinians fear a "little Palestine" will become permanent - allowing the world to forget about their plight and Israel to keep the rest of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Israel also does not appear enthusiastic. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon posed a tough new condition in recent days: He won't agree to a provisional state until Palestinians scrap their key demand for the "right of return" of about 4-million war refugees and their descendants to Israel. Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas turned down Sharon, saying the fate of refugees must be addressed.

Israelis and Palestinians must clear many hurdles - a truce, a Palestinian crackdown on militants, an Israeli settlement freeze and withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza - before they get to the ministate.

For now, they are arguing over how to get started on the peace plan.

The three-phase road map, vaguely worded to avoid offense, is ambiguous about the provisional state, calling it an "option," but saying Phase II would focus on setting it up. The plan has the state being formed by the end of 2003 by an international conference.

Borders are not specified, but the road map says the Palestinians should get territory in addition to the 42 percent of the West Bank and two-thirds of Gaza they received in earlier accords.

The land Palestinians have - just in theory, because Israel has reoccupied most of it in its hunt for militants - largely consists of disconnected areas. The plan asks Israel to help create "maximal territorial contiguity" for the state and suggests this would require dismantling some Jewish settlements.

Some have begun sketching borders. Khalil Shikaki, head of a Palestinian think tank, said the Palestinians need 68 percent of the West Bank and all of Gaza to link land. His map would require Israel to uproot three dozen West Bank settlements and all 16 in Gaza, with a total of 20,000 residents.

Shikaki's plan preserves about 100 settlements, home to nearly 200,000 settlers, creating narrow Israeli-controlled corridors and cutting the West Bank in half.

Sharon would not likely part with that much of the West Bank so quickly. It is widely believed that his plan is to give the Palestinians - at most - half the West Bank in an interim solution to be in place for many years.

A senior Palestinian negotiator said he feared time would be wasted haggling over temporary borders, and both sides should get down to drawing the final lines.

The idea of a Palestinian state with provisional borders was raised in informal talks two years ago but went nowhere.

In many ways, a state with temporary borders would be similar to Palestinian self-rule arrangements in place before the outbreak of fighting in September 2000. Since founding the Palestinian Authority in 1994, the Palestinians have had a government, a 40,000-strong security force, a flag and other trappings of statehood.

The main difference would be symbolic. Israel would cross a point of no return by recognizing Palestinian statehood, an idea that appears to be have gained the grudging support of a small majority. In future talks, the Palestinians would be on a more equal footing with Israel.

Shikaki said that despite pitfalls, a provisional state might be the only way to reach a peace deal.

"We can either continue to kill each other until we reach that point (peace)," he said, "or we can reach an agreement that would eventually take us along that road."

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