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Times Political EditorA state poll shows more Floridians would vote for President Bush over Sen. Bob Graham.
Sen. Bob Graham says he has the best chance of defeating President Bush, but a new poll shows Florida's most popular Democrat can't even beat him in his home state today.
While Graham has handily won five statewide elections in America's most important swing state, pulling Florida's 27 electoral votes from Bush could be a tall order. He trails Bush by 9 percentage points. Five percent of voters are undecided.
Florida voters favor Bush over Graham 52 percent to 43 percent, according to a telephone survey conducted May 6-8 for the St. Petersburg Times, Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post.
"The idea that Bob Graham is 9 points behind in his home state tells me that his electability argument will need some bolstering," said pollster Rob Schroth, refering to Graham's claim to be from "the electable wing of the Democratic Party."
Graham, the two-term governor and three-term senator who formally announced his bid for president last week, overwhelmingly leads the other Democratic candidates in Florida with 54 percent of Democratic voters.
Only Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who campaigned hard in Florida as Vice President Al Gore's running mate in 2000, drew double digit support, with 13 percent. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri had 8 percent and the other six Democrats barely registered. Eighteen percent of Democrats were undecided.
The poll was conducted by the Washington-based polling firms of Schroth & Associates, whose political clients are Democrats, and the Polling Co., whose political clients are Republicans. The statewide phone survey of 600 registered Florida voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Democratic primary results have a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.
With Election Day still 11/2 years away, the poll provides a snapshot that is likely to change. Republicans and Democrats alike expect Bush's postwar popularity to drop as the election approaches. One year before Florida's notorious, virtually tied 2000 presidential election, Bush led Gore by 15 points.
Still, Bush's strong early lead undercuts Graham's contention that his track record in America's fourth-biggest state makes the electoral math work better for him than any other Democrat.
"Bob Graham still needs the voters in Florida to associate those three magic words in politics with his name: He can win," said pollster Kellyanne Conway. "It doesn't seem to me that an overwhelming number of voters in this poll believe he can win."
The poll does show some potential signs of trouble for Bush. In Pinellas, a bellwether county that backed Jeb Bush last year and Al Gore in 2000, Graham handily leads Bush, 57 percent to 40 percent. In Hillsborough County, Bush narrowly leads 49 percent to 44 percent.
The president also barely leads Graham, 44 percent to 41 percent, among Florida's crucial independent voters. African-American voters back Graham over Bush, 75 percent to 16 percent, though the margin of error is more than 10 percentage points for the ethnic breakdowns in the poll.
Bush comfortably leads Graham among voters 65 and older, leads by 4-to-1 among voters 18 to 34, and leads among coveted Hispanic voters by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio.
One in five Democrats said they would back Bush over Graham, while 11 percent of Republicans would back Graham.
"The president is honest, and he's a good person," said Paul Caple, an independent voter and retired Air Force master sergeant from Pompano Beach. "He may make some mistakes, but he means well."
Donald McClellan, 80, a retired engineer from Brooksville, heartily backed Bush in 2000 and generally likes the president's "forceful and honest" leadership. But while he rarely votes for Democrats, McClellan is not so sure about 2004.
"I don't know how I'd vote," he said. "I like Bob Graham and think he did a great job as governor, so I'm on the fence."
Another trouble spot for Graham is female voters. Women typically favor Democrats but are evenly divided between Bush and Graham.
"For Democrats to win in Florida, they must carry the women's vote to offset the longrunning problem they have with male voters," Schroth said.
A strong 60 percent of Florida voters approve of President Bush's job performance, which is slightly less than national polls have found and about the same approval Bush enjoyed in a similar poll last October. The president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, enjoys similarly high approval ratings.
"Voters remain very loyal to the "Bush brand,' " Conway said.
They also remain loyal to Graham, though more voters didn't know enough about him to judge his performance in the Senate. Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed approved of Graham's performance as a senator, while 20 percent disapproved and 22 percent didn't know.
Florida's Democratic primary is scheduled for March 9, after more than half the states have completed their primaries and caucuses. By then, the Democratic contest could well be settled.
Most of the candidates have limited their Florida campaigning to fundraising, but the poll found room for gains among the crowded field.
"The fact that one in five voters remains undecided shows there is an ability for one or two of the other candidates to become contenders," Conway said.
Earnest Youngblood, 51, a railway employee from Jacksonville, has enthusiastically backed Graham in the past, but for now is leaning toward Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.
"I like Graham," Youngblood said, "but he's just getting in the race, and I haven't yet heard a lot about what he wants to do as president."
- Adam C. Smith can be reached at (727) 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com