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Compiled from Times wiresThis hurricane season "could be really bad," said Federal Emergency Management Agency director Michael Brown.
MIAMI - The National Hurricane Center predicted a busier-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season Monday: 11 to 15 tropical storms, including six to nine hurricanes, with two to four of those becoming major storms with winds exceeding 110 mph.
The historical average for the season that runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 is 10 tropical storms, including six hurricanes, two of them major.
Twelve tropical storms and four hurricanes developed last year, including two major storms.
Hurricanes' severity ranges from Category 1 to Category 5, with anything Category 3 or higher considered a major storm.
Ocean temperatures higher than normal and other factors will contribute to this season's increased activity, said James Mahoney, deputy administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Forecasters were especially concerned about what they said is a 70 percent chance of a recurrence of the La Nina phenomenon this summer. La Nina - lower-than-normal eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures near the equator - inhibits the formation of hurricane-destroying crosswinds.
La Nina dominated the 1999 season, when there were 12 named storms, including eight hurricanes and five Category 4 hurricanes (winds exceeding 130 mph), which set a record. It also was in effect for the 1998 season, when there were 14 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, of which three were Category 3 or worse.
Two to three hurricanes typically hit the United States in seasons such as the one forecast. Last year, just one hurricane made landfall.
Officials are warning residents to be prepared.
"We may have gotten lazy and lackadaisical in our preparedness for hurricanes - get over it," said Michael Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency."Let me put it in layman's terms," Brown said, "it could be really bad."
The government will issue five-day hurricane forecasts this season, replacing the three-day advisories used since 1964. Forecasters say that will allow accurate, longer-range outlooks giving more forewarning to increasingly populated coastal areas.
Colorado State University hurricane forecaster William Gray last month updated his 2003 prediction to say there would be 12 tropical storms, including eight hurricanes, three of them major. He will issue another update May 30.
Another private forecaster, the Weather Research Center, predicts eight tropical storms, including six hurricanes, three of them major.
The storm names for this year are Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fabian, Grace, Henri, Isabel, Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.