A nation-building lesson from Bosnia: Keep the peace

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina - The United States and Britain laid out ambitious plans for rebuilding Iraq: Quickly creating a strong democracy representing all segments of the country's diverse society and establishing a flourishing economy firmly anchored by a thriving oil industry.

But some of those plans are faltering, something that comes as no surprise to those involved in similar rebuilding efforts in other countries, where visions and reality don't necessarily go hand in hand.

In Bosnia, 71/2 years after the Dayton peace accord ended the bloody Balkan conflict, successes in nation building are tempered by the work that remains to be done.

The war's end saw tanks filled with NATO-led troops posted at virtually every street corner in the capital, Sarajevo. Buildings were destroyed and the economy was in shambles, with most of the population living off international aid. More than 2-million refugees had fled their homes as the war, and the peace accord, split the country along ethnic lines.

These days, there are plenty of outward signs of change. Peacekeepers usually are spotted sipping coffee or Coca-Cola at streetside cafes. About half the refugees have returned home and countless buildings have been rebuilt or repaired.

But the same nationalists who ruled the country during the war remain in power. Ethnic divisions can paralyze government decisionmaking, and have forced the high representative - the top international official in Bosnia - to do everything from imposing a national anthem to pushing for military reduction and reform to removing questionable politicians from office. Meanwhile, the economy struggles, with the unemployment rate above 40 percent. Corruption and criminality flourish. And the two most-sought war crimes suspects remain at large.

"Failure to quickly and decisively establish the rule of law is something for which we have paid a steep price," said Vedran Persic of the Office of the High Representative. "There is no peace without it."

In a recent article in the British newspaper Guardian, Paddy Ashdown, a long-time member of British Parliament who serves as Bosnia's high representative, analyzed lessons that can be learned from efforts to rebuild Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan.

"We have become all too good at winning these wars. But far less good at winning the peace that follows them," Ashdown wrote. "Yet building peace requires just as much focused political will, often rather more resources, and infinitely greater patience over the long term than winning swift victories."

Ashdown warned law and order must be swiftly established in Iraq or criminality will run rampant. In Bosnia, the initial emphasis was on creating democracy, rather than law and order - something Ashdown contends slowed reform.

Before the war, Bosnia was part of a socialist Yugoslavia, where only Communist Party members ran for office. In the newly constituted Bosnia, elections were seen as a "signal that democracy had flourished ... and American troops could go (home)," said Mark Wheeler, director of the Bosnian office of the International Crisis Group, a Washington think tank.

Yet seven years and six elections later, few Bosnians can muster enthusiasm for going to the polls, and about 12,000 international peacekeepers remain, including 1,800 National Guardsmen In Iraq, plans for creating a democratic government have stalled. Initially, U.S. officials talked of organizing a convention of Iraqis to elect a representative interim government.

Next, they spoke of unilaterally appointing an Iraqi advisory body, launching a wave of complaint.

In response, L. Paul Bremer, the U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq, said last week a council would be created with the power to select government ministers and advise international officials on issues such as education and oil policy.

Those oil revenues will be used to pay for the country's rebuilding, something the U.N. Security Council agreed to last month.

Those oil revenues give Iraq a huge advantage over Bosnia. As in other Eastern European countries before the collapse of communism, the economy was dominated by state-owned industries, many of which were unable to compete in a free-market economy.

Instead, many of those who prospered in Bosnia have been involved in illegal activities, such as smuggling and trafficking in women.

"No businessman will invest his money in a corrupt environment," Persic said.

Instead, international officials and institutions have been the major economic force in the country, providing billions in aid and countless sums more in rent, food, clothing and day-to-day living expenses.

Bosnians who work for international institutions have benefited, earning several times more than those working for local companies. Yet in Sarajevo, the average monthly wage is about $300. In other parts of the country, it's lower.

But as attention shifts to other hot spots, international interest and aid wanes.

Besides international aid, the only thing holding Bosnia's economy together is the "gray economy" - people who work for unregistered companies or do side jobs and don't pay taxes on what they earn, said Wheeler of the International Crisis Group.

About 20 percent of the population works in the gray economy. While this helps keep dissent in check, "everybody becomes complicit in crime," Wheeler said.

Since the war's end, foreign governments and international institutions have donated $5-billion to $6-billion, Wheeler said.

In addition, it's estimated 10 times as much has been spent on peacekeeping, although the number of troops has plummeted from a postwar high of 60,000.

In Iraq, a much larger country in terms of land and population, the number of U.S. troops is expected to decline from 170,000 to about 100,000 as the 1st Armored Division, America's most experienced peacekeepers, are deployed.

As the United States prepares to push for stability, democracy and a strong Iraqi economy, there is cause for concern, Wheeler said.

"One of the most absolute fundamentals is it takes a hell of a lot more time than it is expected to take, and is almost always fraught with political imperatives which undermine or limit the success you can expect to have, at least in the short run," he said.

- Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

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