Weather | Sports | Forums | Comics | Classifieds | Calendar | Movies

Nuclear Iran on the U.S. radar

Iran says its program is strictly for fuel, but America says the possibility of a bomb is a big concern.

To Iran, America is the "Great Satan," exporting Western vulgarity to the Muslim world.

To President Bush, Iran is part of the "axis of evil," a rogue nation bent on developing weapons of mass destruction.

Ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution, tough rhetoric has dominated U.S-Iranian relations. But there has been little hard evidence that Iran is trying to make a nuclear bomb.

That could soon change. In a still-secret report, the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran has disclosed new information that suggests it is developing the technology to produce nuclear weapons.

"Iran has failed to meet its obligations" on identifying nuclear materials and the facilities where the material was stored, according to the report, portions of which were leaked to news outlets on Friday.

But the report also indicates Iran is showing a more cooperative attitude about its nuclear program.

The findings, to be formally released June 16, could fuel U.S. demands that Iran be declared in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. And in a worst case scenario, they could lead to war between America and the world's second largest Mideast country.

"It's ultra sensitive right now," said Melissa Fleming of the atomic energy agency. "In fact, we have people going back to Iran this weekend."

Iran insists its nuclear program exists only to provide another source of fuel as its rich oil reserves begin to shrink.

With Russian help, Iran is building a nuclear power plant at the Persian Gulf port of Bushehr. But inspectors also are investigating U.S. claims that another plant, which the Iranians themselves are building near Natanz, will be used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.

Despite its denials, Iran probably is trying to make a bomb, experts say.

"In the last three years, the United States has invaded and overthrown two governments on Iran's border," says Michael Donovan at the Center for Defense Information in Washington, D.C. "The Iranians are not feeling very secure despite the fact they certainly didn't mind seeing Saddam Hussein's backside."

Donovan, like other experts, thinks the harsh U.S. tone toward Iran might actually be pushing it toward developing nuclear weapons.

Iran is split between a reformist government and religious hard-liners, but "the one thing everybody in Iran can agree on is national defense," Donovan says. "When the U.S. comes up with a lot of bellicose rhetoric, it tends to close the political ranks. They look at places like North Korea, where we're talking instead of invading, and they think there probably is a high value on having a nuclear weapons program."

With the end of Hussein's regime, Iran lost its best argument for developing a nuclear deterrence. Iran and Iraq fought a long war in the '80s that killed at least 500,000 Iranians.

But Iran still feels threatened by Israel, which accuses it not only of developing a bomb but also of supporting Palestinian terrorists. Iran is keenly aware that Israel has nuclear weapons, as do three other nations in the region - India, Pakistan and Russia.

"Iran has been a regional power for centuries but it finds itself in a very dangerous neighborhood," says Hooshang Amirahmadi, president of the American Iranian Council in Princeton, N.J. "I don't know if (the Iranians) are developing nuclear weapons but I would not be surprised if they did."

Still, Amirahmadi says, Iran must come clean about its nuclear program.

"The hide-and-seek approach - what Saddam Hussein did - will not work. You have to be honest and open about not only your capabilities but your intentions. . . . Iran must also understand that if it fails to be completely transparent it will risk a war with the U.S. or at least a surgical strike."

Speculation that Iran is the next U.S. target is reflected by a bumper sticker that says, "NO TO WAR IN IRAQ" - with Iraq crossed out followed by Iran, Syria and North Korea. President Bush says he prefers a diplomatic approach to Iran and other countries, but a top State Department official has told Congress that no options are ruled out, including "pre-emptive military force where required."

Iran's foreign minister, Kamal Kharrazi, in turn accuses America of focusing on Iran to divert attention from continuing problems in Iraq.

"They are looking for escape routes to justify their failure so far" Kharrazi said.

Iranians have long felt that criticism of their nuclear program is unfair.

Unlike Israel, Pakistan and India, Iran has signed the nonproliferation treaty, which allows member nations to develop nuclear energy only for peaceful uses. The atomic energy agency has never found Iran in violation.

Iran also accuses the United States of a double standard when it comes to other countries.

The United States has never openly criticized Israel for developing its nuclear arsenal, said to number up to 130 devices. The Jewish state has never even acknowledged the existence of those weapons.

And America has consistently tried to block Iran's civilian nuclear program while agreeing to provide nuclear reactors to North Korea, generally considered a far more dangerous country.

The reactor project, aimed at relieving North Korea's energy crunch, was put on hold last year after the north indicated it was reactivating its nuclear weapons program.

"The Russians don't tire of pointing out that the reactor they're building for Iran is a light-water reactor like the one (the United States) is building for the North Koreans," Donovan says. "I think that's an interesting argument."

Ironically, Iran's own nuclear program is said to have started with America's blessing. In the early '70s, the U.S. government encouraged the pro-Western shah of Iran to develop nuclear power as an alternative energy source.

"Americans advised Iran to generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity . . . and submitted plans for building power plants. Now they say Iran does not need nuclear power since it has abundant oil and gas," Iran's former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, angrily noted last month.

The nuclear program was suspended twice - first in 1979, when the shah was overthrown, and again in the late '80s when Iraqi air strikes damaged the reactors at Bushehr.

Russia is now building a reactor at the same site, one of several nuclear power plants Iran says it will need in the future. The country's population of 67-million is expected to nearly double over the next three decades.

Iran has 9 percent of the world's oil, but "at the rate of energy consumption today, it will become a net importer of petroleum products by the year 2020 or 2025," says Amirahmadi of the American Iranian Council. "The argument that Iran has oil and gas and therefore does not need nuclear technology is not a good argument."

But whatever Iran's peaceful intentions might be, at least four countries - America, Britain, Israel and Germany - have concluded it has "a long-term program to build the bomb," according to the Nixon Center, a Washington think tank. Israel predicts Iran could have a bomb as soon as 2005.

Heightening concern is the plant at Natanz, which Iran says will produce low-grade uranium to fuel civilian nuclear plants. But U.S. and British intelligence fear the uranium might be moved to a secret location for further enrichment to weapons-grade quality, the New York Times reported.

"It makes no technical sense for Iran to do this for civilian purposes because Russia has agreed to provide lifetime fuel service for Iran's only nuclear power plant under construction, the one at Bushehr," said Gary Samore, an expert on nuclear proliferation.

"The Iranians will argue that they have plans to buy an additional four or five plants from Russia. But it would make more economic and technical sense for Russia to provide the fuel for those plants too."

Iran has allowed inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit the underground Natanz plant. Since their initial visit in February, Iran also has acknowledged it is building or planning previously undisclosed nuclear facilities.

If found in violation of the nonproliferation treaty, Iran could suffer economic sanctions and other measures. But most experts think Iran is sticking to the letter of the law for now even if it eventually decides to withdraw from the treaty and openly build a bomb.

"I think the game is still the same in Iran, which is that they are trying to put the capabilities in place to quickly develop a nuclear (weapons) program if they felt necessity or circumstances dictated it," Donovan says.

In the meantime, Iranian officials are trying to douse suspicions about their ultimate goal. They have called for a "nuclear-free Mideast" and invited Americans to help build Iran's nuclear power plants.

Amirahmadi, of the American Iranian Council, says the offer is "a great starting point" for a rapprochement between the two countries.

After militants stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and seized 52 hostages, the United States cut off diplomatic relations and imposed its own sanctions on Iran. America might ease up if Iran agreed to improve its dismal human rights record, stop its support of terrorism and enforce the rule of law.

"I think the U.S. can take that offer on the nuclear plants but also make it very clear that there will not be normal relations with the U.S. until life in Iran also become normalized," Amirahmadi says.

Donovan also thinks America should start engaging Iran. Although religious conservatives still control many aspects of society, Iran is the only Muslim country in the Mideast with a democratically elected government and a largely pro-American populace. Making Iran feel more secure might keep it from developing nuclear weapons.

"There are some legitimate reasons to clamp down on the Iranians - they will frustrate the heck out of you," Donovan says. "They do support Hamas and Hezbollah, and because of this duality in the country between the hard-liners and the reformers they can do something we applaud and then start stirring up trouble.

"But Iran is an incredibly important place. It is destined to dominate the Persian Gulf geographically, demographically, economically. We should be bending over backward to see how we can overcome the differences."

- Susan Martin can be contacted at susan@sptimes.com