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Lance Armstrong already may have won his fifth consecutive Tour de France, without a single climb or time trial, if most of his rivals are to be believed.
While former champions and bookmakers agree he is a prohibitive favorite in the 2,140-mile race that begins Saturday in Paris, the 31-year-old American is doing his best to maintain a semblance of suspense.
"There are plenty of guys out there who want to beat me, and I could get ill or fall off my bike," Armstrong said. "Lots of things can go wrong in a three-week race."
They might have to for Armstrong's opponents to think they have a chance to end his domination. Armstrong is attempting to mark the Tour de France's 100th birthday by becoming the fifth rider to win five times and only the second to win five straight.
Jan Ullrich, the 1997 winner and four-time runner-up, is seen by Armstrong as the main threat. The 29-year-old German said he would be happy to win one of the 20 stages after missing last year's race following knee surgery.
"Victory this year is too much to hope for," said Ullrich, forced to miss some races this year after his Team Coast went out of business. He now rides for Bianchi. "I'm eyeing 2004."
There are plenty of other riders ruling themselves out. Tyler Hamilton, Richard Virenque and Christophe Moreau said they've given up on winning and would be happy with second or third place.
Joseba Beloki might join them there. Second last year after finishing third in 2001 and 2000, the 29-year-old Spaniard is often criticized for following Armstrong rather than trying to attack to gain time. Beloki took on Armstrong on the Mont Ventoux climb last year only to be left trailing by his counterattack.
"It's rubbish to say riders don't dare attack - if they could, they would," Guimard said. "But Armstrong's team sets such an intense pace it's difficult to get away."
Not every contender is saying they've given up. Gilberto Simoni, a 31-year-old Italian who in June won the Tour of Italy for the second time in three years, said he aims to challenge Armstrong in the mountains.
"He hasn't really been tested," said Simoni, who last competed in the Tour de France in 1997, when he was 116th.
"If a few other riders join me in attacking, who knows what might happen. Maybe Armstrong will crack."
Armstrong is attempting to match Miguel Indurain's five consecutive victories from 1991-95. Jacques Anquetil, fellow Frenchman Bernard Hinault and Eddy Merckx of Belgium are the other five-time champions.