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About time for these senators to decide

ADAM C. SMITH
Published July 27, 2003

One is a relative newcomer to politics, the other a veteran of more than three decades in state and national office.

But these days Sens. Bob Graham of Florida and John Edwards of North Carolina have a lot in common.

They are the only southern Democrats running for president, and they're up for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Neither has closed the door on jumping out of the presidential contest and running for another Senate term.

That means both are leaving a lot of ambitious Democrats in their home states uncertain about their own political futures.

And neither Graham nor Edwards has picked up much steam in their presidential campaigns. That only fuels doubts about the incumbent senators forgoing another term in the Senate.

The longer the uncertainty lasts, the tougher it becomes for potential Senate successors to Edwards and Graham to raise money and gear up campaigns.

"The fact that he is looming as a potential Senate candidate affects all of us tremendously," said U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings of Miramar, one of five Democrats considering a run for Graham's seat. "It affects money-raising and a variety of things you need to do. You can't get past four sentences talking to people before they ask, "What is Sen. Graham going to do?' "

In North Carolina, Edwards has not even followed Graham's example and publicly urged Democrats to start gearing up campaigns to succeed him. Grumbling is louder there than in Florida, particularly with a well-funded Republican congressman, Richard Burr, busy building a Senate campaign.

President Clinton's former chief of staff, Erskine Bowles, is among those looking to run for Edwards' seat. But he won't run against Edwards and has said he can't wait much after Labor Day to start gearing up a campaign. Edwards has publicly given no timetable for making a decision, however, even after a private meeting with Bowles this month.

Edwards could be on the ballot for Senate and president in North Carolina, much as Sen. Joe Lieberman was on the Connecticut ballot for senator and vice president in 2000. No one expects that to happen, though, but Edwards could wait until late February before deciding about his Senate seat. Florida law prevents Graham from being on the ballot twice, but he has until May to decide yea or nay to another Senate bid.

Both southern contenders are clearly focused on their presidential campaigns for now. It's hardly a certainty they'll last even to the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses, however.

The late-starting Graham is barely registering in key early states and is badly trailing most of the field in fundraising. Even perennial fringe candidate Lyndon LaRouche has raised more money.

Edwards is in much better shape, having raised nearly $12-million this year, second to Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. But Edwards has been campaigning for well over a year and early polls in Iowa and New Hampshire have shown him mired toward the bottom of the pack.

"I think you're looking at September or October as crunch time for a lot of these people," veteran Democratic consultant Peter Fenn said of the crowded Democratic field. "There will be a lot of come-to-Jesus meetings is my sense."

Plenty of armchair psychologists are speculating about the mindsets of Edwards and Graham. If Edwards, 50, is determined to be president, might the one-term senator pragmatically decide that a little more time in the Senate would position him better down the line?

Is Graham, 66, bored with the Senate, especially as a member of the minority party and lacking a committee chairmanship? Is it a choice between the White House or retiring to spend more time with his 10 grandkids?

Graham confides in almost no one on such matters, and consistently fends off questions about his options. "I am running to be elected president of the United States of America," he says when asked about ruling out a Senate bid.

Increasingly, though, Florida Democrats are speculating that he'll step back into the Senate if his presidential campaign fails to gain traction.

"Without a doubt," said Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. "Public service is like breathing to Bob Graham. I don't think he's ready to give up public service."

Veteran Democratic pollster Dave Beattie, who has worked for Nelson and now is working for former education commissioner and Senate candidate Betty Castor, is dubious. The longer Graham stays in the race the more millions he raises - money that can't be transferred to a Senate race - and Beattie doubts Graham would want to tap many of those same donors again to raise more millions for a Senate campaign.

Graham had less than $247,000 in his Senate campaign account, and recently transferred much of that to his presidential campaign. Edwards has kept about $1.4-million in his Senate account.

With 19 Democratic seats up for election in 2004 and 15 Republican seats, Democrats have a steep climb in taking back control of the Senate. Still, it is just a 51-49 split, and any plausible party strategy has to include keeping Graham's seat in Democratic hands.

If Graham's presidential bid never gains steam, he is sure to face pressure from the national party to seek another Senate term. Such pressure is less certain for Edwards, observers say, because he doesn't enjoy the kind of overwhelming homestate popularity Graham does.

"If Graham drops back into the Senate race, he's a heavy favorite to win. I can't say the same for Edwards," said Jennifer Duffy, who studies Senate campaigns for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Uncertainty over Graham running again for Senate has fended off heavyweight Republican candidates for his seat. Graham has been uncharastically partisan and harsh in attacking President Bush on the presidential trail, and the state GOP contends that has dramatically weakened his prospects for winning another Senate race in Florida. That's surely a stretch, but even some Democrats acknowledge Graham has chipped away at his bipartisan popularity.

"He's the most partisan he's ever been. ... By virtue of running for president, if he were to decide to run for Senate I think he'd have have his toughest race since Paula Hawkins," pollster Beattie said, referring to Graham's first Senate race in 1986.

Another potential fall-back option for Graham is getting tapped as a vice presidential nominee, given his prospects for delivering Florida's 27 electoral votes. Then again, one good way to diminish your vice presidential stock is getting embarrassed in a series of early primary contests. In that case, consider another name for the vice presidential list: Bill Nelson.

-Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com

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