With the earlier warnings comes the risk of problems if projections are wrong.
By CHUCK MURPHY
Published August 1, 2003
ST. PETERSBURG - Hurricane Claudette was barely a tropical storm and out near Cuba when the National Hurricane Center first told Texans that the storm might come ashore near Brownsville.
But about 250 miles north of that projected spot, Matagorda County Judge Greg Westmoreland was watching closely anyway. Good thing, since the center's five-day forecast was off and the storm came ashore in Matagorda County.
"I'm just continually amazed that the science is not better than it is," said Westmoreland, the Texas equivalent of a county administrator. "I was surprised by their track right up to the last."
As the water in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean heats up, so does the hurricane season in Florida. Though it officially begins in June, most storms occur between now and October, including 11 of the 12 named storms last year.
This year, for the first time, residents are getting earlier warnings from the Hurricane Center. After a two-year test, the center is releasing a five-day forecast of each storm's path and intensity, giving emergency planners, businesses and residents an extra two days to ponder the likelihood of a direct hit.
The extra time is considered both a blessing and a curse by some emergency officials.
"It's a good thing from a government planning, long-range action standpoint," said Michele Baker, director of emergency management in Pasco County. "But it can be misleading to residents, and my concern is that it could cause one of two reactions: One, panic or two, apathy."
The Hurricane Center has started releasing the five-day forecast this year for a couple of reasons.
First, with improved understanding of hurricane behavior and better forecasting technology, the expected error in the forecast has shrunk to acceptable levels. Tests in the 2001 and 2002 hurricane seasons found that the track forecast was off by about 372 miles on either side in a five-day forecast. That sounds like a long way, but it roughly matches the accuracy of the three-day forecast 15 years ago. And it narrows down the potential watch area considerably.
Second, with that improved accuracy, the Hurricane Center can give two groups who need extra time the early information. The U.S. Navy and the oil and gas industry need as much time as possible to move ships or evacuate drilling platforms. The new forecast gives them that.
"But we can't selectively release a product like that, just to those groups," said Frank Lepore of the Hurricane Center. "It's paid for by taxpayers. We have to give it to everyone."
That means the media gets the five-day forecast, too. And if the five-day forecast gets presented to the public as a solid fact, it could breed distrust and panic.
"As with all products of this type, you need an informed consumer, and you, the media, are the educators," Lepore said. "It has to be presented properly."
During Hurricane Claudette, the media reminded Texans of the potential for error in the early forecasts. And Craig Fugate, director of Florida's emergency management division, said he expected the media would continue to offer the 5-day forecast as an informational product, emphasizing that the errors could be huge.
"Looking at the Weather Channel and CNN and other national broadcasts, I think that's how they handled it," Fugate said. "That's how I would expect we will continue to see it used."
When the National Hurricane Center asked local and state officials for their opinion on a publicly released 5-day forecast, Florida supported the idea. Fugate said he considers it a "second chance" for residents to begin hurricane preparations if they didn't before the start of the season on June 1.
And it gives his office a heads up on what hurricane forecasters in Coral Gables may be thinking, allowing preparations to begin in the background.
"If there's a forecast that shows a storm headed generally for Tampa Bay, and it continues in that direction, and we're looking at Day 4, then Day 3 and it is still headed that way, the governor is going to be thinking about needing to reverse lane I-4 and that will take some planning," Fugate said. "This gives us time to think about those things."
