Guess who's leading in the Great Migration Contest?
By ROBERT TRIGAUX
Published August 11, 2003
Forget the outdated Sunshine State name. Florida should be called the Migration Magnet State.
Census numbers unveiled last week show how Florida, between 1995 and 2000, by a wide margin enjoyed the largest net population gain - 607,000 people - from "domestic migration," or people moving from other states.
Florida's net increase was almost twice the gain of No. 2 Georgia (341,000), No. 3 North Carolina (338,000) or No. 4 Arizona (316,000), and more than 21/2 times that of No. 5 Nevada (234,000).
Where did all these new Floridians once call home? New York was tops by far, sending a net inflow of 238,012 to Florida, or more than a third of all interstate newcomers in the 1995-2000 period. What that means is 308,230 New Yorkers moved to Florida in what was the largest state-to-state transfer of people in the country. In the same period, 70,218 Floridians relocated to New York. The result? A 238,012 net inflow from New York to Florida.
Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania also had substantial departures of their residents to Florida.
Talk about Florida's increasing need for better growth management. What we're seeing in these census figures is only the start of another major population boom in the state.
The latest five-year census numbers reflect Florida's commanding lead in what could be called the Great Migration Contest, a demographic competition for people who are relocating from their home state and are choosing where they want to go next.
If so many people are picking Florida as their new home, surely there must be something more than warm weather drawing them here.
How about the growing state economy? The general availability of jobs and relatively low unemployment rate? No state income taxes? What about Florida's cost of living, still low by national standards?
Florida's well publicized warts - lower-paying jobs, a public education system that ranks near the bottom in the country, a long-term water shortage, high crime rates, sprawling metro areas - don't seem to be discouraging the inflow much.
If the trend holds up, Florida should brace itself for a tsunami of retiring Baby Boomers. Over the next 25 years, the swollen population of folks born between 1946 and 1964 will be drawn to Florida by more than habit and weather. Many of them will come from wealthy Northern states and will be selling homes that have appreciated dramatically, especially in the Northeast. Here, they can leverage their rich rewards by purchasing a lot more house for the buck.
No wonder Florida's largest private land owner, St. Joe Co., is so obsessed with developing the Florida Panhandle, mostly with upscale housing developments. That's why developer WCI Communities is so busy erecting high-end condominium towers from Sarasota to Naples. These builders are anticipating a major surge in business, and they are creating the capacity to profit from the big numbers ahead of eager and well-heeled buyers.
Of course, what pleases developers hardly thrills Floridians already chafing from the state's growing density and pressures on the environment.
Still, I suspect that such states as New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania would all gladly change places with Florida when it comes to the migration patterns of U.S. residents.
New York boasted the nation's largest net loss, 874,000 people, to interstate migration between 1995 and 2000. California, long the wishful destination for millions, had the second-largest net loss, at 755,500 people. Illinois was third, with a net loss of 343,000. New Jersey and Pennsylvania posted net losses to other states of 182,829 and 131,296, respectively.
No U.S. state suffered an overall decline in population during this period. Births and foreign immigration, whose numbers were not included in the census interstate migration data, helped boost every state's population.
While Florida emerges as a clear winner in the migration game, the new census data shed some new light on the 1995-2000 movement of people in and out of the state. For example:
- If most "new" Floridians came from the Northeast and Midwest, where did people leaving Florida most often go? In the South, neighboring states received more people from Florida than they sent. In the largest single outflow, more Floridians (157,243) relocated to Georgia than Georgia residents (99,225) moved to Florida. North Carolina enjoyed a net gain of 38,691 Floridians. So did Tennessee (16,000), South Carolina (7,000), Alabama (4,000), Texas (3,000) and Mississippi (2,000).
- Ohio gained more residents from Florida than it did from any other state. But it wasn't enough. More Ohio residents moved to Florida in the same period.
- On a national scale, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina were among the top destination states for people. In contrast, the high-cost Northeast experienced the lowest levels of migration and some of the greatest losses in population.
- The Tampa Bay area, which includes Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties, enjoyed a net gain of 122,834 residents between 1995 and 2000. That number reflects only people who moved to this area from out of state minus area residents who left Florida in the same period. Pinellas posted the biggest gain of the counties in this category, adding a net increase of nearly 47,000 people from out of state.
Among retirees, a key constituency for Florida's senior-oriented economy, the state again dominated the 1995-2000 census figures.
Florida ranked as the No. 1 destination of relocating people who were 65 years or older. Florida had a net gain of 149,440 seniors moving here. The closest state to Florida was Arizona, with just 53,241. Once again, New York was far and away the No. 1 loser of relocating seniors in this period, with a net loss of 114,171.
That does not mean Florida can take incoming seniors for granted. It's well documented that more Americans 60 and older are moving to Nevada, Arizona, both Carolinas and other states that are starting to cater and market to seniors.
If there's a blip in the latest five-year census figures, it is the net decline in Florida in the population of migrating Americans 85 and older. Granted, the numbers are modest, but the state saw 1,169 more people in this age group leave its borders than relocate here.
Many of the oldest seniors who first moved here shortly after retirement may be returning to their home states to be closer to family, a census report suggests.
The trend of rising competition for seniors has not been lost on Florida. Earlier this year, a group established by Gov. Jeb Bush called the Destination Florida Commission issued a report warning that Florida needs to provide fresh incentives to keep and attract new seniors.
Without better marketing, a compelling tax climate and improved senior services, the commission said, more seniors once destined for Florida will choose other places for their retirement.
True, some other states with fewer people are on a growth track with seniors. Nevada and Arizona are the two fastest-growing states in the nation, followed by Georgia, North Carolina and, finally, Florida.
Even so, by almost any recent census measure, Florida remains the nation's domestic migration mecca.
