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Fourth quarter may buck trend

By Associated Press
Published October 4, 2003

NEW YORK - Wall Street typically enjoys a strong performance in the fourth quarter, but analysts say the coming three months might be an exception because the market doesn't usually go into the final quarter having rallied for six months.

While economic reports have been mixed, they've been increasingly more positive than negative. That's one big reason why analysts say that even if this fourth quarter isn't spectacular, it won't be catastrophic, either.

"I don't think we are going to rip-roaring ahead. But the good news is, I don't see any disaster," said Gary Kaltbaum, president of the money management firm Kaltbaum & Associates in Orlando.

Kaltbaum said he predicts Wall Street's major indexes will remain in a tight trading range - the Dow Jones industrials hovering around 9,600, for example - during the fourth quarter and any breakouts will be to the upside.

Since March 11, when the rallies began, the Dow has climbed 27.2 percent, the Nasdaq composite index has surged 47.9 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 index has advanced 28.6 percent.

The Dow ended the week up 259.23, or 2.8 percent, finishing at 9,572.31. The S&P climbed 33.00, or 3.3 percent, to 1,029.85. The Nasdaq gained 88.50, or 4.9 percent, closing at 1,880.57.

[Last modified October 4, 2003, 02:04:40]

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