SAN FRANCISCO - As Yogi Berra would say, it's getting late early for the Bucs.
With Carolina owning a two-game lead in the NFC South, as well as the tiebreaker by virtue of its overtime win at Raymond James Stadium, the world champions are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture.
They are not alone.
The 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2002 are a combined 30-38. The 49ers, Falcons, Jets, Raiders and Steelers have lost four times each already.
That's what makes today's Bucs-Niners game so critical.
"There are a lot of teams that made the playoffs last year, us included, that need to win," coach Jon Gruden said. "That's the league. You look at Philadelphia, the Giants, look at the Jets, around the league; open your eyes. Everybody that was in the playoffs for the most part has a loss, two losses, maybe three.
"I think desperate is a word you use every week in this business, Week 1, Week 14. This is a tough league to win in."
Every division leader in the NFC this season failed to make the playoffs last season: Seattle in the West, the Cowboys in the East, the Vikings in the North and the Panthers in the South. The Panthers and Vikings are unbeaten, the Cowboys and Seahawks have one loss each. Teams such as the Rams (3-2), Packers (3-3) and Redskins (3-3) are wild-card contenders and none faces a first-place schedule, as the Bucs do.
It's hard enough to defend a Super Bowl title. Try doing it without four starters on defense and possibly with four new starters on offense because of injuries and free agency.
"It's not going to change, either," Gruden said. "You lose two starters on defense to free agency, you lose (Shelton) Quarles and Brian Kelly, you lose (Mike) Alstott, (Joe) Jurevicius, (Ken) Dilger, Rickey Dudley ... you're not playing like the same team you had last year. You never stay the same. Now, we've been in position to win games and I compliment our team for that. But everybody goes over coaching changes, playing changes, the schedule never stays the same. Hell, we changed divisions up last year, too.
"You compound all those things together, by George, you have what you have."
THE SILVER LINING: If the Bucs can avoid falling out of the playoff race because of injuries, they likely will be a better team for it. Players such as Todd Yoder, Will Heller, Jameel Cook, Tim Wansley and Corey Ivy will become better from the experience they have gained this season.
"That win at Washington did a lot for our football team," Gruden said. "They're looking out there and the guys are excited for Yoder and Will Heller and Jameel Cook and guys are putting their arm around Jermaine Phillips. Instead of 30 to 36 guys who had a real sense of belonging, now everybody has ownership now. Everybody is getting some ownership in the building. I'm hoping we can hang in there and by the end of the year that helps you."
ENOUGH ALREADY: Gruden bristled when asked about Redskins coach Steve Spurrier before the game last weekend.
After the distraction of dealing with Tony Dungy's return to Tampa Oct. 6, Gruden may never talk about an opposing coach again. And who could blame him? But just consider what lies ahead:
Bill Parcells, the runaway bride who signed a contract to coach the Bucs before backing out, brings the Cowboys into RJS on Oct. 26. The Giants, with Ronde Barber's twin brother, Tiki, have a Monday Night Football game Nov. 24 in Tampa. And the Bucs have a rematch with Carolina Nov. 9 and two games against the Saints (Nov. 2 and Dec. 7), who swept Tampa Bay last season.
"Our whole season is dramatic," Ronde Barber said.
