Election 2004

Graham's chance for No. 2 slot debatable

Some analysts say his dull campaign hurt. Others say he'll be a VP contender just like before.

WASHINGTON - Now that Bob Graham has dropped out of the presidential race, the Florida senator is willing - perhaps even eager - to be a running mate.

"I am prepared to do whatever I can to contribute to a Democratic victory next November," Graham said the night he dropped out.

As he decides whether to seek re-election to the Senate, advisers say a key factor is whether it would hurt his chances of being chosen as the vice presidential nominee.

But several political analysts say Graham is a long-shot as running mate because he was such a lackluster presidential candidate.

"I don't think his campaign helped him," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. "He never really got any traction. I think his age showed. Sometimes he ran what I would describe as a hokey campaign - singing songs and the like."

Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, said the Democratic nominee will want a running mate who can inspire crowds. But Graham "is not a strong stump candidate" and had difficulty raising money, she said.

Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia, said Graham "came across as yesterday's man, as out of his league and as somebody who just couldn't connect with people. He was almost a sad figure on the campaign trail."

Others say Graham is likely to be a contender for the No. 2 slot, just as he was in 1988, 1992 and 2000. They say he has an impressive resume and is a popular figure in a key state.

"Graham remains, so far as I can tell, the most popular political figure in Florida," said Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

"He doesn't give stem-winding speeches," Ornstein said. "But a vice presidential candidate doesn't have to do those things."

Ornstein said Graham's experience as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee gives him valuable credentials that could be important in next year's campaign.

Former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo said Graham "would be an immensely valuable vice president and I think he would be an immensely valuable running mate."

Graham's lack of pizazz shouldn't matter, he said.

"He is not the emoting, externalizing, Bill Clinton type," Cuomo said. "Graham is relentlessly intelligent, with the charming capacity for not insisting that you recognize that intelligence."

The remaining Democratic presidential candidates have said little about their possible choices for running mate because the decision won't be made for at least six months. But Jim Jordan, campaign manager for Sen. John Kerry, told the New York Times last month that, "You can never say no because (Graham) helps an awful lot in an absolutely pivotal state. But there's nothing about his performance that's improved his position."

Graham soon will announce whether he will run for re-election. Among the analysts, there's no consensus about whether he enhances his vice presidential chances by running again. On one hand, it would show that the 66-year-old grandfather is still vigorous and committed to public service. On the other hand, a presidential nominee might be reluctant to pick Graham if it would mean the Democrats could lose a seat in the Senate.

Democrats say Graham is still a political star in Florida and would be a strong candidate for vice president.

"He will be on the short list and he will be talked to by whoever the nominee is," said U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Miramar.

Geoff Garin, Graham's pollster, said the Florida senator improved his standing as a prospective vice presidential candidate.

Garin said Graham became a better candidate, especially in the later stages of the campaign, and he defused issues that might have hurt his vice presidential prospects, such as his eccentric habit of keeping detailed journals.

"He comes out as a bigger person, not a smaller person, for having run," Garin said. "The people that were most impressed by Bob Graham in the final months of his candidacy were the other people running."

But Republicans said Graham probably lost his chance to get on a national ticket because of his uncharacteristic attacks on the Bush administration and his unusual campaign style (he sang a song called You've Got a Friend in Bob Graham at many events).

Graham "just oozes experience and credibility," said U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Bartow. "But after the singing and the calls for impeachment and the early remark about going into Syria, I think he's lost his Moses-like aura."

Putnam said Florida's other U.S. senator, Bill Nelson, would make a better Democratic running mate. "He's got charisma, he's got the whole astronaut thing going for him," Putnam said.

Rep. Mark Foley, R-West Palm Beach, agreed that Nelson would be better than Graham.

Nelson "is more of a centrist player and he's got better poll numbers," said Foley. "He appears to be better on TV. He's a little crisper."

- Times political editor Adam Smith contributed to this report.

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