But I think I just saw Jack McKeon blow the World Series.
The Marlins manager showed up at Yankee Stadium Friday afternoon to announce his starting pitchers for Games 6 and 7. After much thought, McKeon settled on Big Risk tonight followed by Huge Gamble on Sunday night.
Thus we have arrived at this season's fateful moment. The pivotal decision that will forever mark the end of this World Series.
The Fall Classic had seen one magical moment and one terrific ending. Unfortunately the magic (a Roger Clemens curtain call) came during a commercial break and the terrific ending (an Alex Gonzalez 12th-inning home run) did not arrive until half-past bedtime.
So maybe this atones for a Series that was lacking in personality and devoid of drama. Because this, my friends, is your chance to argue the wisdom or folly of a manager's decision long before the next pitch is thrown.
If you have not heard by now, McKeon has chosen potty-mouthed prodigy Josh Beckett to start tonight's Game 6 on three days of rest. If necessary, he would be followed by Carl Pavano on three days' rest in Game 7.
"You're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't," McKeon said. "I mean, who's got the answers? Everybody's got their own opinions. We do too. We feel we're going to go out there and win Game 6. We're not setting up to win Game 7 because you don't know whether you'll have a chance to win Game 7."
To be fair, McKeon has sound reasoning for his decision. Beckett and Pavano have been his best pitchers in the postseason and he wants them on the mound. If he waits for their normal four days of rest, Beckett would not pitch until Game 7 and Pavano would not pitch until 2004.
What McKeon is trying to avoid is conceding Game 6 to the Yankees tonight. And that's his fear if he has to start Dontrelle Willis or Mark Redman, either of whom is capable of bringing Alfonso Soriano out of his slump.
McKeon would rather be aggressive with Beckett and Pavano, even if both are starting on short rest for the first time in their careers.
"I can understand he wants to ride the hot hand and put the pressure on us," Yankees manager Joe Torre said. "That's what managing is all about."
It comes down to this:
Do you believe in the pitcher or do you trust the numbers?
Because if you go by recent history, you want nothing to do with using a pitcher on short rest. The facts are not subject to interpretation.
Pitchers going on short rest in this postseason are 2-5 with a 4.18 ERA. Since the start of the 1999 postseason, pitchers are 6-20 with a 5.93 ERA in 37 starts. Let me know when you've spotted the trend.
And yet there are exceptions. Dramatic, inspiring exceptions.
Torre started Andy Pettitte on three days last week and he pitched brilliantly. Curt Schilling, to whom Beckett is often compared, pitched on three days' rest against the Yankees in the 2001 World Series and was co-MVP.
"If I had Bob Gibson out there today on three days' rest, would anybody be asking me how could I pitch Bob Gibson?" McKeon said. "Nobody. That's the way we feel about Beckett."
There is a difference, however, between Beckett and pitchers such as Gibson and Sandy Koufax who threw on short rest in the 1960s. Yes, it is physically possible. There are about eight decades worth of pitchers to back it up.
But that is not the point today. Gibson and Koufax were trained to pitch on three days' rest. Beckett has never done it. It's like saying a four-minute mile is possible, but you wouldn't bet on a sprinter to pull it off.
And that's not even considering the wisdom of risking Beckett's long-term health just a few months after he had an elbow injury.
My guess is Beckett will pitch well tonight, but will tire in the later innings. And then what? Florida's bullpen failed Beckett in Game 3, failed Pavano in Game 4 and nearly blew Brad Penny's huge lead in Game 5.
The chances are slim either Beckett or Pavano will pitch a complete game, which means Ugueth Urbina could decide the Series.
And doesn't that sound like fun.
McKeon, presumably, is concerned about the Series going to a Game 7. He wants Beckett on the mound tonight to put an end to this. I applaud the spunk needed to take this risk.
But I can't help thinking the Marlins are better off with Beckett at full strength on Sunday rather than both Beckett and Pavano at partial strength.
If Beckett and the bullpen hold up tonight, McKeon is a genius. If not, he is looking at a tired starter in Game 7 and the Yankees sensing weakness.
Look, what do I know? The Marlins are leading the Series. They have arrived from nowhere to come within nine innings of being champions. McKeon has pushed all the right buttons and obviously knows what he's doing.
