Florida Democrats are no longer so confident they can push presidential candidates into giving them an early voice in picking their party's nominee.
With all nine Democratic presidential contenders threatening to boycott the state Democratic convention next month if a straw poll is held, support is softening. Party insiders make a final decision on Sunday.
"I think it's going to die," said Jon Ausman, a Democratic National Committee member from Tallahassee who was a vocal advocate for the straw poll.
The issue is becoming increasingly contentious.
The Democratic National Committee adamantly opposes a straw poll because it would drain resources from early primary contests in other states. Many Democratic activists in Florida are joining the opposition.
"Support's beginning to fade," said Miami-Dade Democratic chairman Ray Zeller, a strong supporter of the straw ballot who is now wavering. "It's going to be a strong meeting Sunday, let's put it that way. It's going to come down to the state (party) chairman's selling points."
Dozens of state party officials plan to meet in Tampa on Sunday. If they approve a straw poll, more than 3,000 delegates gathering for their Dec. 5-7 convention at Disney World will cast their preferences for president. While largely symbolic, the vote could still provide a shot of momentum to top performers.
Though local supporters have been busy recruiting delegates for the convention, all nine presidential candidates last month signed a letter promising not to attend if a straw poll were held.
Holding a convention without the star power of presidential candidates would be a letdown for many delegates. But it's not clear how many of the nine will attend even if the straw poll is not held.
Supporters of the straw vote say it would give America's biggest swing state some say in the nominating process, which is expected to be effectively over by the March 9 Florida primary.
State party chairman Scott Maddox, officially neutral on the question, has been working on a compromise that would ensure that all or most of the candidates attend the convention and raise money for the state party. "The key is that we get maximum interaction between the delegates and the candidates. We need all nine and we need them to make a serious time commitment to make that happen," Maddox said.
Even that won't satisfy everyone, however, particularly party activists who insist the candidates would never go through with a boycott and risk alienating such a key state.
"Knowing what happened in Florida in 2000, people would be very, very disappointed in the candidates if they didn't show," said Pinellas state committeeman Artell Smith. "If they didn't show, it could be very detrimental to them down the road in this state."
Hillsborough state committeeman Monroe Mack expects to vote against the proposal Sunday.
"I've never seen straw polls as really valid because of the (small) amount of people participating," he said. "Whether we have a straw poll or not, I don't think any of the candidates are going to put any less effort into winning Florida."
- Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com
