Two more wins could secure berth, but several C-USA teams have winning marks.
By PETE YOUNG
Published November 20, 2003
Two wins in its final two games and South Florida probably can book its first bowl ticket.
Probably. Most likely. But not definitely.
Conference USA membership does not guarantee USF (6-3, 4-2 in C-USA) a bowl bid even if the Bulls win out, making them bowl eligible and third in the C-USA standings.
Two more wins, though, should take care of things because indications from the five bowls with C-USA tie-ins are that USF is a desirable commodity. If C-USA has an excess of bowl-eligible teams (a good possibility), USF is unlikely to be bypassed in favor of three teams below it in the standings - though C-USA bylaws allow the bowls to do that.
"We want people in the stands, that's our No.1 priority, and if all of the e-mails I got last year are any indication I would say we'd love to have South Florida," said New Orleans Bowl executive director Ron Maestri, referring to the outcry from USF fans over last season's bowl snub. "They were e-mailing us like crazy even though it was something we had no control over.
"If we can get half of the e-mailers to come, we'd have a heck of a crowd. I would love to have (USF). I have every indication they would travel well."
Of course, the subject is moot if USF doesn't win Saturday vs. UAB and Nov.29 at Memphis. The Bulls are two games shy of the minimum six Division I-A wins required for bowl eligibility. (They have wins over I-AA opponents Nicholls State and Charleston Southern).
Athletic director Lee Roy Selmon would not address hypothetical scenarios, such as what he will do if USF is among a surplus of bowl-eligible C-USA schools and in danger of being passed over.
"It's a bit premature to go into what types of outcomes those may be," Selmon said. "We want to stay focused on doing everything we possibly can to be bowl-eligible. With two games left, I think we have to take care of that side of it first."
Here's how the C-USA bowls break down: First place goes to the Liberty Bowl (Memphis, Tenn.); the GMAC Bowl (Mobile, Ala.) has its pick of remaining teams; and the final three C-USA bowls - Hawaii, Fort Worth and New Orleans - work with C-USA to create the best arrangements, presumably the most lucrative.
TCU can toss a monkey wrench into things. The unbeaten Horned Frogs, if they win their final two games, could qualify for a BCS bowl, which would jumble and delay matters.
The Liberty Bowl might have to wait for the final BCS standings after the first weekend in December to see if TCU makes the BCS. The GMAC Bowl in turn is put on hold, and so on down the line. The timeline bottleneck would be problematic because of the short turnaround for the New Orleans (Dec.16) and GMAC (Dec.18) bowls.
Most C-USA teams have two league games remaining, meaning there are countless bowl permutations. Eight C-USA teams still have bowl hopes, seven are capable of ending the season with seven or more wins and six could go to a bowl if TCU gets in the BCS.
"I can tell you South Florida is still in the mix (for a GMAC Bowl berth)," said GMAC Bowl executive director Frank Modarelli, who watched USF practice last month when the Bulls were preparing for TCU. "We think they would travel. There's always the fear of the unknown since it is their first bowl, but I don't think we have that fear with them."
The USF-UAB loser is eliminated from bowl contention. USF, however, could appeal to have one of its two I-AA wins count toward its bowl-eligible total.
"I'll determine that later," Selmon said when asked if he would appeal.
If USF and Cincinnati (5-5, 2-4) win their remaining two games and Houston (6-4, 3-3) wins at least one, then seven C-USA teams will have seven or more wins. Even if TCU were to make a BCS bowl, someone in C-USA would get snubbed.
Who? Myriad factors go into bowl selection, among them won-loss record, TV ratings and proximity. But the main criteria is how many fans that school will bring, which means Cincinnati might get slighted. The Bearcats sold just 2,000 tickets to the New Orleans Bowl last season.
Could the Bulls get snubbed? It is a blood-boiling notion after being denied last season despite a 9-2 record.
"They have built up into a great program so quickly, and they're off to the Big East in two years, so it would be a rare chance to get them," Fort Worth Bowl executive director Tom Starr said.
USF has pros and cons. Houston, for example, has more name recognition, but the Cougars are averaging more than 7,000 fewer fans a game (30,571 to 23,145). Also, the excitement of USF's first bowl game likely would make Bulls fans inclined to travel.
And each bowl has nuances. Houston could have an edge with the in-state Fort Worth Bowl, especially if the opposing Big 12 team also is from Texas (perhaps Texas Tech). Memphis (7-3, 4-2), Louisville (7-3, 3-3) and Southern Miss (7-3, 6-0) are jockeying for position, too.
The shakedown starts tonight with TCU playing at Southern Miss.
"I think we'll see how (tonight's) scenario plays out, and then we get serious," Starr said.
