Florida voters are heading into the presidential election year right where they left off in 2000: sharply divided.
President Bush comfortably leads all his Democratic challengers in Florida and enjoys relatively healthy approval ratings nearly a year from Election Day, a new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll found. But voters differ strongly over Bush's handling of the economy, the war in Iraq, the direction of America and whether the president understands their concerns.
"This poll conclusively demonstrates that Florida once again is in play," said pollster Rob Schroth. "The president's popularity is tenuous, even vulnerable, and it will take another year to sort out whether he can carry this state again."
Voters in America's biggest swing state have mixed messages for the candidates, the poll found. They are anxious about Iraq and about the future of Medicare and Social Security. At the same time, they mostly think the president has made the United States safer from another terrorist attack and are more upbeat about the economy than the country as a whole.
"People in Florida seem much more buoyant about their own economic situation than we see in other places," said pollster Kellyanne Conway, who said the results suggest Bush is positioned to win the state.
Fifty-three percent of voters approve of the job Bush is doing as president - a drop of 7 points since May - and he leads Democratic challengers by at least 8 points. By comparison, a year before the virtually tied 2000 election, Bush led Al Gore by 15 points in Florida.
Forty-three percent of voters would re-elect Bush, while 37 percent would back the eventual Democratic nominee.
The poll was conducted Dec. 1-3 by the Washington polling firms of Schroth & Associates, whose political clients are Democrats, and the Polling Company, whose clients are Republicans. The statewide phone survey of 800 registered Florida voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The results highlight Florida's status as a microcosm of America, complete with the nation's deep partisan splits. Retirees like Republican Charlotte Austin of Beverly Hills and Democrat Shirley Kindler of Pinellas Park are equally passionate in their assessment of the president.
Said Austin: "He's doing a wonderful job. I just like what he stands for. I think he's brought decency back to the White House."
Said Kindler: "He's a terrible president. Our boys are over there in Iraq getting killed, and he says, "Bring 'em on.' What kind of person says that?"
Voters were evenly split on whether the country is headed in the right direction, and on Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq. The divide is largely partisan: Eighty-five percent of Republicans approve of the president's overall job performance, while 70 percent of Democrats disapprove. Among independent voters, 50 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove.
Voters in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties were more enthusiastic about Bush than Florida voters overall. But continuing the trend of Pinellas increasingly leaning Democrat in national elections and Hillsborough Republican, Bush's approval ratings were slightly higher in Hillsborough, 59 percent, than Pinellas, 55 percent. In Hillsborough, Bush beat an unnamed Democratic nominee by 14 points, compared to 8 points in Pinellas.
Thirty-six percent of voters said protecting Medicare and Social Security is the most important issue facing the president and Congress, 34 percent cited Iraq, and 22 percent said fighting international terrorism. Only 19 percent of Florida voters cited the economy as their top issue, ranking the issue below education, 24 percent, and affordable health care insurance, 23 percent. Two percent said lowering taxes.
Florida has had a stronger economy than many other states. Just more than one in four voters said their household economic situation was worse off today than four years ago, while 32 percent said they were better off and 40 percent said their situation was about the same.
"I know for a while things were pretty rough, but that had mostly to do with 9/11," said Suzanne Pearce, a stay-at-home mother from Oveido who voted for Gore but supports Bush. "I think things are coming back around."
Party affiliation is connected to those perceptions. Nearly half of Republican voters say they were better off than four years ago, while fewer than one in five Democrats feel that way.
The poll was conducted after the president's well-received Thanksgiving visit to Iraq. At least one other national poll indicated that surprise visit boosted the president's approval ratings, but his overall support in Florida is slightly less than that shown in recent national polls.
Florida voters have a nuanced view of Iraq. Fifty-six percent said the president had made the United States safer from another terrorist attack, and nearly two-thirds rejected comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam. But nearly 70 percent of voters said Bush has not clearly explained how long American troops will have to remain in Iraq, and 55 percent said the current level of casualties there are unacceptable for achieving U.S. goals.
"He's handling it good, but he could handle it better," Russell Kell, a Bush supporter and retired police officer in Orange Park. "I just can't see losing our boys over there. Every time they kill one of ours, we ought to kill a hundred."
Overall, half the voters say the war in Iraq was worth fighting for, while 43 percent say it wasn't, and 7 percent were unsure.
Again, voters are divided heavily on partisan lines. Three-fourths of Republicans say the war was worth it, while two-thirds of Democrats say it wasn't. Sixty-three percent of Republicans consider the level of casualties acceptable given the goals, while 77 percent of Democrats view it as unacceptable.
The poll offers plenty of reasons for optimism in the Bush campaign. He beats an unnamed Democrat in every region of the state except South Florida. He also leads, albeit barely, among independent voters, and among coveted Hispanic voters he enjoys 61 percent approval. "Any Republican would die to have these numbers anywhere," Conway said of the Hispanic support for Bush.
The president continues to struggle making inroads among African-Americans, however, with 8 percent of black voters saying they expect to back Bush over the eventual Democratic nominee. Black voters are especially skeptical of the war, with nearly three in four saying the war was not worth it, and 80 percent disapproving the president's handling of the war.
Women voters in Florida are more skeptical of Bush's performance on the war and economy than men, but half approve of Bush's overall performance, while 44 percent disapprove.
Bush's personal appeal has been touted as one of his strengths, but the poll found half the voters disagree that he "understands the problems and concerns of people like you," while 46 percent agree.
Asked whether the Bush administration has succeeded "in restoring honesty and integrity to Washington," 48 percent disagree and 44 percent agree. Among Republicans three-fourths agree, while three-fourths of Democrats disagree.
- Times staff writer Steve Bousquet contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com
