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TALLAHASSEE - Three presidential challengers are in a close race to claim the hearts of Florida Democrats, but a new poll shows the race is wide open: Nearly a third have not decided who should challenge President Bush in 2004.
The evidence of a Florida free-for-all comes as the nine Democratic candidates head to Disney World for a weekend convention with 3,000 party activists beginning today.
Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor whose Internet-fueled campaign has propelled him to the top of many national polls, is favored by 16 percent of Florida Democrats. Retired U.S. Army Gen. Wesley Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman were next at 15 percent each.
Missouri U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt is fourth with 8.5 percent, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is fifth with 6 percent. The rest were at 3 percent or less, and 31 percent chose no one.
All would lose to Bush, the St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll found, though a generic Democratic nominee would be just 6 percentage points behind the president.
The undecideds include Shirley Kindler, 66, of Pinellas Park, who was forced to reassess when Florida Sen. Bob Graham quit the race last month.
"I'm trying to figure out which Democrat can win," Kindler said. "I'm hearing mostly about Howard Dean. I like what he says and his ability to get out there and raise money. It's going to take money to get out there and beat Bush."
Miriam Reid, a Palm Beach County retiree, said she hasn't made up her mind.
"I'm not sure yet," said the 77-year-old Delray Beach resident and retired owner of photo labs. "I'm leaning toward Wesley (Clark). I think he's using sense in how he wants to address this war in Iraq. But I also say that whichever Democrat gets it is going to get my vote."
With its 27 electoral votes and divided electorate, Florida is expected to be a crucial battleground in 2004.
Bush was favored, 43 percent to 37 percent, against the eventual Democratic nominee. That points to another close race in Florida, said pollster Rob Schroth.
"This state is completely up for grabs with a year to go," said Schroth, a Democratic pollster.
The St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll was conducted Dec. 1-3 by the Washington, D.C., polling firms Schroth & Associates and the Polling Company.
The statewide phone survey of 800 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error for the Democratic primary is 5.3 percent.
Pollster Kellyanne Conway, whose clients are Republicans, said the poll shows Democratic voters are uninspired by their candidates.
"When faced with nine choices for their nominee for president, they are rejecting those choices and going for Mr. Undecided," Conway said. "None of the above."
A statewide poll conducted two weeks ago by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research found Bush leading all his Democratic challengers by 20 percentage points or more, with 23 percent of Democrats undecided about their nominee.
The new poll finds the race much tighter. In hypothetical head-to-head matchups with the five leading Democrats, Bush would beat any of them by eight to 18 percentage points. Dean and Clark came the closest: Each trailed the president by eight points.
Bush was favored by 11 points over Gephardt and Lieberman, by 13 points over Kerry and by 18 points over North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
In Pinellas County, 24.2 percent of voters favored Clark, with Dean and Gephardt at 12.2 percent each; Lieberman, Kerry and Edwards lagged at 3 percent each.
In Hillsborough County, Dean led the pack with 23.8 percent, followed by Gephardt with 16.7 percent and Clark with 14.3 percent.
Those county samples have a margin of error of plus or minus 7.9 percent.
The poll surveyed Democrats about their preferences in the March presidential primary, with the margin of error plus or minus 5.3 percent. Statewide, women voters had a slight preference for Lieberman at 16 percent, with Dean and Clark close behind with 14.7 percent and 14.6 percent, respectively.
Among African-American voters, Dean was favored by 15 percent, Lieberman by 14 percent and the Rev. Al Sharpton by 10 percent, with 38 percent undecided.
Dean scored highest with Democratic voters aged 18-34, with 23 percent, and Democratic voters older than 65 with 19 percent. He also scores highest among Democratic Hispanics, with 24 percent. Democratic Catholic and Jewish voters both preferred Lieberman.
Edwards' paltry 3 percent statewide showing in the poll is another setback for a Democrat who has been hoping to attract support in Sun Belt states.
"The Edwards campaign has been over for a while," Conway said.
- Times political editor Adam C. Smith contributed to this report.