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Election 2004

Martinez run leaves governor's race open

By LUCY MORGAN
Published December 6, 2003

Our political landscape is about to change.

Mel Martinez, the U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, will resign as early as next week to jump into the 2004 U.S. Senate race that Sen. Bob Graham has abandoned.

That means House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, state Sen. Dan Webster and former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum will have some high-powered company in the race for the Republican nomination.

Martinez, a former elected county chairman from Orlando, comes with blessings from a White House that is a little shy about saying so.

Gov. Jeb Bush doesn't want any candidate to step in with the appearance of White House backing, so don't expect the prez to stand up and anoint him. But the GOP's Washington types prodded him into running.

White House political operatives and national Republicans think Martinez could save the party from the spectacle of having U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris running a statewide campaign on the same ballot with President Bush.

That would be the Republicans' worst nightmare, reminding everyone of her role in the 2000 presidential recount.

And it would be certain to bring life to the Democrats.

And there is another reason for Martinez to get in.

Some Republicans think Byrd, Webster and McCollum are way too conservative to beat a Democrat in a general election Few of them will say much out loud for fear of offending Byrd or Webster just before a legislative session, but they are quietly grumbling a lot.

Mostly the GOP fears Betty Castor. She is easily the favorite in a race where U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Broward County and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas are expected to cancel each other out, leaving Castor the victor.

Martinez isn't exactly a liberal, but he was a trial lawyer and that makes him seem liberal.

Look for his Republican opponents to use the trial lawyer label frequently in the months to come.

Martinez had been expected to run for governor in 2006 with Jeb Bush's blessings, but Graham's departure apparently helped change his mind.

Look for Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings to take a hard look at running for governor.

Asked this week whether she would run for governor or chief financial officer, Jennings ruled out the latter but left the door open for the governor's race.

"I've got plenty of time," she said.

Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher has been quietly running for governor for several years, and some think he has sewed up a lot of big contributors. But Attorney General Charlie Crist is looking seriously at the race and has good statewide name recognition. Don't count him out.

On the Democratic side, state Sen. Rod Smith of Alachua County is taking a serious look at the governor's race.

He knows he's from the wrong part of the state and in what has lately been the wrong party, but Smith is drawing support from a lot of Democrats who see him as a moderate guy with good sense.

He also knows knows how to get along with Republicans and has frequently been given tough assignments by the Republicans who run the Legislature. He is chairman of a special committee studying alternative ways to change the Constitution.

Tampa's U.S. Rep. Jim Davis is also looking at the governor's race, but he's been there before and backed away.

Don't discount the possibility that whoever loses this year's Senate race might come back for a return engagement.

It worked for Charlie Crist when he ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate and established better name ID before returning to run for attorney general.

There will be others, too.

The governor is trying hard to keep Republicans focused on reelecting his brother, but it's hard to keep the 2006 wannabes from putting their toes in the water to test the temperature.

[Last modified December 6, 2003, 14:23:07]


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