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STEVE BOUSQUETVoters prefer Betty Castor and Katherine Harris, who's not running, to replace Sen. Bob Graham.
ORLANDO - A new poll finds that Florida's two most popular candidates for the U.S. Senate are women: Democrat Betty Castor, who's running, and Republican Katherine Harris, who's not.
Castor, a former state education commissioner and University of South Florida president, and Harris, a first-term member of Congress from Sarasota, lead their respective party rivals by double-digit margins, a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll shows. But with the election a year away, the race to succeed retiring Democrat Bob Graham is up for grabs: 40 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of Republicans are undecided.
"If the Senate primary combatants are Betty Castor and Katherine Harris, we will have one of the great showdowns in American political history," said Democratic pollster Rob Schroth. "Two qualified, talented women running for the U.S. Senate. I'm searching my brain for another woman versus woman showdown that would be this dramatic."
"It could be more exciting than the presidential race," added Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway.
But that would require Harris to run, and so far she hasn't jumped into the race.
The St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll was conducted Dec. 1-3 by the Washington polling firms Schroth & Associates and The Polling Company.
The statewide phone survey of 800 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points in the Senate race.
Castor's first-place showing is consistent with previous polls in the race. In the latest survey, she received 28 percent, ahead of U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Fort Lauderdale with 17 percent and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas with 15 percent.
All three Democrats hope to make a big splash with more than 3,000 grass roots party activists this weekend at a convention of the Florida Democratic Party at Walt Disney World. Most of the presidential candidates will speak today, with the Senate candidates to follow at a Sunday brunch.
Castor was trailed by supporters Friday afternoon as she made her way through the party's convention hotel. Her husband, Sam Bell, a lobbyist, wore a bright yellow "You bet I'm with Betty" T-shirt, and the president of the state teachers' union, Maureen Dinnen, was handing out Castor campaign materials.
Castor has not been on a Florida ballot since 1990. But despite her advantage in the early polls, she has lagged behind her Democratic rivals in fundraising.
"It's given us a little boost in our fundraising," Castor said of the polls. "And it has been a little bit easier since Sen. Graham got out."
In the Tampa Bay area, Castor is the early runaway favorite, with 49 percent. But she also ran ahead of her rivals in North Florida and the Panhandle with 35 percent, the part of the state where Deutsch and Penelas are least familiar.
Castor is equally popular with men and women. South Florida voters prefer Penelas over Deutsch, by 37 percent to 28 percent. Hispanic voters overwhelmingly favor Penelas, and black voters are equally split in their preference for Castor and Penelas.
The percentage of undecided Democrats ranges from a low of 20 percent in South Florida to a high of 61 percent in the Orlando area, which is not the home base of any Democratic Senate candidates.
Among Republicans, the poll is yet another sign that Harris would be a force if she entered the race, but she has not made any decision. She has been doing her own polling and consulting with political advisers and supporters.
Harris was the choice of 29 percent of Republican voters. Former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum of Altamonte Springs, the GOP's Senate nominee in 2000, was second at 15 percent. U.S. Housing Secretary Mel Martinez, who is expected to enter the race as soon as next week, scored third at 11 percent.
Four other Republican Senate candidates languished in the low single digits.
"Katherine Harris is the undisputed favorite, the darling of the Florida GOP," Conway said.
Some Republicans worry that Harris' presence on the 2004 Republican ballot with President Bush would rekindle the hot passions of the 2000 presidential election and galvanize Democratic voters, not just in Florida but all over the country.
Harris' central role in the bitterly disputed 2000 presidential recount, as Florida secretary of state, made her a household name almost overnight. Though she was viciously lampooned by Saturday Night Live and late-night comics, who criticized everything from her politics to her makeup, Harris also became a martyr to millions of Republicans with her aggressive approach certifying the election for Bush.
Russell Kell of Orange Park, a Republican and retired police officer who is chief of security at a rest home for Moose lodge members, said Harris is his first choice.
"She had backbone enough in that first election to stick to her guns, and that's pretty good," Kell said.
Asked about the other Republican Senate candidates, Kell said, "They don't ring a bell with me."
Martinez, a Cuban-American, was the overwhelming choice of Hispanic Republicans, with 53 percent, and the choice of one of five Central Florida Republicans. He served as the elected chairman of Orange County government before President Bush appointed him a member of his Cabinet.
While the poll offers encouraging news for Castor and Harris, it also shows how far some Republican candidates must go to become competitive.
State House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, R-Plant City, was the choice of just 3 percent of Republicans surveyed. State Sen. Dan Webster, Miami lawyer Larry Klayman and Pinellas Commissioner Barbara Sheen Todd barely register with the public. Each got 1 percent.
The survey found Byrd even trails Harris on his home turf: He received 17 percent in Hillsborough to Harris' 23 percent.
- Times political editor Adam C. Smith contributed to this report.