MADEIRA BEACH - Sunday's Gulf Beach Halfathon, a 13.1-mile road race from Madeira Beach to Largo's Taylor Park will bring together 600-plus runners with varying goals and expectations.
Given the uncertainties of who, among the best runners from the area and beyond, will show up, competitors tend to focus on only those factors they can control.
Fred Dorsey of Tampa, who finished ninth last year, said he doesn't expect to win or necessarily improve his finish place, but he believes he can improve on his time of 1 hour, 24 minutes and 25 seconds.
"I'm really racing against the clock," said Dorsey, 47, a program manager with Verizon Data Services in Tampa. "I'm not out there trying to win the thing; there are too many faster runners out there. However, I like to do well in my age group."
Dorsey, who trains 50-60 miles weekly, has reason to be optimistic.
After finishing 20th at the Times Turkey Trot on Thanksgiving in 38:16, he improved significantly at last weekend's Hidden River Classic 10K in 36:57, a personal record for the distance. He finished 14th in a field of 280.
"That was a strong field at Hidden River," Dorsey said. "They have a lot of good prizes there, such as running shoes, and that attracts a lot of good runners."
Aside from enjoying the scenic course at the Halfathon, which runs north along Gulf Boulevard and another long stretch on the Pinellas Trail, Dorsey said his motivation to enter the race is to use it as a training run for the Jan.11 Disney Marathon.
"I definitely plan to run (the half marathon) at race pace because that will help me for Disney," Dorsey said. "My theory on marathon training is that running at a faster pace at shorter distances gives you the speed base to enable you to run a faster marathon."
Dorsey said he'd like to improve on the 3:13 marathon he ran in Washington at the Marine Corps last month. His best time in 20 marathons is 3:06 at Atlanta and Disney.
FAVORITES: None of the top three men from last year will return, so the overall race is wide open.
Among women, Lisa Valentine of Tierra Verde and St. Petersburg's Mary Ann Protz are co-favorites.
Last year, content with second place, Valentine ran a laid-back 1:29:46 and finished behind Cindy Pomeroy (1:28:11) of Windsor Locks, Conn. With Pomeroy not in the field, the women's title should come down to Valentine and her Forerunners teammate Protz.
Protz, 47, has been on a roll. She posted an age-group winning time of 2:56 at October's Chicago Marathon, an overall women's win (18:57) at last month's Carrollwood Turkey Trot, and a rapid 38:22 for second at last weekend's Hidden River 10K in Tampa.
"Mary Ann is definitely the one to watch," Valentine said. "She's due to run in the 1:24-to-1:26 range, which she's easily capable of. I just plan to run the opening mile in 6:30 basically watching Mary Ann's back for awhile. If it comes down to the end, I'll sprint to beat her. We're friends and we'll congratulate each other afterward. Regardless, it's going to be fun."
If Valentine, 42, maintains a 6:30-per-mile pace, that would bring her home in 1:25:13, just about the same time she predicts for Protz.
Protz takes a more cautious outlook.
"My best for the half is 1:29:58, two years ago, so I'd be happy to run a 6:40 pace," she said. "I'd love to maintain 6:30, but I don't think I can do that."
HUMAN INTEREST: Duncan Cameron, 61, of Palm Harbor is favored to win his age division. He's coming off an overall win at the Nov. 22 Gobbler Classic 5K (19:28) in Clearwater.
St. Petersburg physician Tom Wells, 49, a Boston Marathon veteran, probably will have to settle for a 45-49 age-place place behind Dorsey.
Jackie and Larry Yost, 70-somethings from Treasure Island, will run and enjoy the scenery.
