Are the planets coming together for a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Saturday's dramatic capture of Saddam Hussein was the latest in a series of events that suggest now could be an optimal time to revive the "road map" for peace. Here's why:
Nabbing Hussein alive was a coup for President Bush, and showed that an administration often criticized for poor follow-through can get things done. Should the White House decide to redevote energy to the road map, it would have extra clout in pressuring Israelis and Palestinians to resolve their differences once and for all.
"This was a major show of force to the region that the United States not only is serious but that it can produce results," said Murhaf Jouejati, a Mideast expert and adjunct professor at George Washington University. "Given this tremendous victory, I think it's going to give officials of the Bush administration more momentum to thoroughly engage in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict."
At the same time, the end of Hussein's regime could have a significant impact on the negotiating postions of both sides.
Palestinians revered Hussein as the one Arab leader willing to stand up to Israel. The Iraqi ruler not only fired Scud missiles at Tel Aviv during the Persian Gulf War but paid thousands of dollars to families of suicide bombers.
Although some Palestinians remain unconvinced that the haggard figure found Saturday really was Hussein, most know that the man they considered their savior is permanently out of the picture. No other Arab ruler is going to risk war with Israel and America.
But the end of Iraq as a military threat also means Israel has lost one of its best arguments for keeping much of the West Bank "as a security buffer" instead of turning it over to the Palestinians for a state of their own.
The realization that Iraq no longer poses a danger might have been an impetus behind the Geneva Accord, the unofficial agreement between Israeli and Palestinian peace activists that would create a Palestinian state in 2005 and resolve other thorny issues.
"The Geneva Accord reflects that for some people at least, there is less of a necessity to hold (Israeli) forces on the Jordan River," said Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.
"Having Iraq removed for the foreseeble future as a military power enabled them to make these kinds of concessions."
There are signs even Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his conservative Likud Party are coming around to the view that Israel must dismantle most of its settlements in the West Bank or face its demise as a democratic, Jewish state.
As the Israeli peace camp often warns, the Palestinian birth rate is so high that Arabs will soon outnumber Jews in the region. Unless Palestinians get their own state, Israel would lose its character as a Jewish nation or be forced into an apartheid-like system in which the Jewish minority controlled a Palestinian majority.
The Likud Party has long supported Israel's settlement policy in the Palestinian territories and refused to give up even small amounts of land. But Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert recently created a furor in suggesting the only way for Israel to stay democratic and Jewish is to pull out of most of the territories as well as parts of Jerusalem.
Polls show 55 percent of Israelis agree with Olmert's proposal. More significantly, almost half of Likud Party members also support it.
How much Sharon goes along with the plan could be revealed in his much anticipated speech Thursday to an annual conference on Israeli strength and security.
Will Sharon, ever the tactician, simply create the impression he is willing to negotiate on settlements when he really intends to keep all of the West Bank land that he can?
Or, with age and experience, have his views truly changed as he realizes Israel must make concessions to preserve its unique character?
As long as Sharon and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat are in power, Mekelberg doubts much will happen.
"These are two very tired leaderships," he says. "There's a lack of creativity and innovation on both sides."
And Jouejati concedes the Bush administration might be reluctant to push Israel too hard for fear of antagonizing the powerful American Jewish lobby in an election year.
Still, Hussein's capture and the growing support for withdrawal from the settlements means now could be as good a time as any to renew the search for that most elusive of goals - peace in the Middle East.
