Iowans keep us guessing until Monday

Polls say Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards are in a virtual tie heading into the caucuses.

DES MOINES, Iowa - After months of Howard Dean dominating the crowded presidential field in buzz, fundraising and supporter enthusiasm, a hearty few activists in the heartland are about to help answer the question of so many Democrats across America:

Can Dean be beaten?

Very possibly, the latest Iowa polls suggest.

Roughly one in five Iowa Democrats will gather at nearly 2,000 neighborhood meetings Monday night. The outcome of those caucuses will either solidify former Vermont Gov. Dean's front-runner position or herald a protracted primary battle.

Not for at least 16 years have Iowans been poised to be so influential in deciding a presidential nomination. Nor has the outcome been so in doubt.

Polls suggest a four-way dead heat between Dean, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, and Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina. Kerry and Edwards are the candidates with momentum, while Dean and Gephardt have vast organizations to turn out supporters. In New Hampshire, which holds the first primary Jan. 27, former Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas has steadily eroded Dean's once vast lead.

To many political strategists, there's a simple equation: If Dean sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire, his momentum may be too powerful to stop.

"If Dean wins both it will basically be over," said Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, a Dean backer who argues that even eking out wins in both states would be enough for Dean. "It's the momentum. And the rest of the candidates don't have much money."

But Dean's rivals have battered him for more than a month, and polls showed him slipping last week while undecided voters turned to Kerry and Edwards. Dean has the front-runner's burden of high expectations, and Iowans could dent his mantle of inevitability.

"He almost has incumbent status in this race," said Steve Murphy, Gephardt's campaign manager. "When your front-runner is on a steady decline and then loses, it is highly damaging."

Polls are unreliable predictors of Iowa's complex caucuses, where organization can be more important than popularity.

Nobody knows how many of Dean's passionate young supporters will brave expected single-digit temperatures to stand up publicly for their candidate. Or how many members of the 21 international unions feverishly working for Gephardt will turn out. Or whether Edwards or Kerry have strong enough ground organizations to capitalize on their late surges.

For that matter, nobody knows what to expect from a truncated primary schedule in which the nomination could be all but decided by early February, depending on Dean's performance.

Iowa and New Hampshire traditionally have kicked off the season and winnowed the field before candidates moved through a series of contests that usually settled the nomination by early summer. This year, though, the race starts a month earlier and moves rapidly from New Hampshire to seven potentially more conservative states, including South Carolina, Arizona, Oklahoma and New Mexico, which vote Feb. 3.

"Dean's got to win the trifecta, not just the bifecta," said former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman George Bruno, contending that for Dean the Feb. 3 contests are just as important as Iowa and New Hampshire because they will demonstrate broader appeal.

Bruno backs Clark, who, along with Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, is ignoring Iowa to concentrate on New Hampshire and subsequent contests. Clark has steadily cut into Dean's New Hampshire lead, polls show.

Like most of Dean's top rivals, Clark and Lieberman are banking on the Feb. 3 states to derail Dean because those states are less dominated by liberal activists than Iowa and New Hampshire.

"To me, Feb. 3 is it," said Fort Lauderdale lawyer Mitchell Berger, national finance co-chairman for Lieberman. "If Dean is successful Feb. 3, that would obviously be very telling and, if not a death experience, a near-death experience for the rest of the candidates."

If nothing else, the Democratic contest has proved how unpredictable politics can be.

A year ago, Dean was an obscure long shot. But his plain-spoken style and early opposition to war in Iraq set him apart.

Grass roots supporters on the Internet started flooding the Dean campaign with political donations. By early fall he had evolved from surprising political force to unquestioned front-runner.

But establishment support from the likes of Al Gore and Harkin has failed to dim the anxiety Dean causes among some Democrats. His appeal to the angriest anti-Bush activists and outspoken opposition to the war, critics say, is a recipe for general election disaster.

Where fans see a fresh and unscripted fighter, skeptics see a gaffe-prone candidate whose trashing of "Washington Democrats" and moderates will make it impossible for him to unify the party.

"His inexperience is certainly his Achilles heel. He flip-flops on issues, and I think he lacks core values, and he doesn't understand what he believes in," said James Hoffa Jr., president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which backs Gephardt.

The attacks on Dean's electability, temperament and record intensified as the caucuses approached. The start of his slight slide in Iowa, say many observers, came soon after the capture of Saddam Hussein last month, when many undecided voters started taking a second look at the front-runner.

"I've seen a lot of people backing away from Dean lately, but many of them still haven't made up their minds," said Jack Krieps, Democratic chairman of rural Kossuth County. "People say Dean sticks his foot in his mouth too much."

In Newton, veteran Democratic activist Jeanne Bridenstine has been working the phones for Dean but hears strong support for Kerry. Negative attacks on Dean, including Gephardt mailings and TV ads questioning Dean's commitment to Medicare, are influencing people.

"We've been engulfed with those smooth brochures attacking Dean, and I've had a number of people say, "Oh no, I can't support Dean when he's against Medicare,"' she said.

Democrats last week frequently noted the negative tone of the Dean and Gephardt campaigns as a turnoff (both campaigns pulled negative TV ads off the air Friday). Gephardt critics usually say they want a fresher face, while those who are skeptical of Dean struggle to explain their unease.

"I don't know how to describe it," said Bev Buscher, a retiree in Algona. "He seems kind of like a know-it-all."

History offers solace for Democrats on both sides of the Howard Dean question.

- For those who despair at the thought of Dean vs. Bush: In the past 50 years of competitive Democratic primaries, January's front-runner has usually lost the nomination. In only four of 10 competitive primary races did the front-runner in December or January (Adlai Stevenson, John F. Kennedy, Walter Mondale and Al Gore) win the nomination.

- For those who support Dean: Since campaign finance rules went into effect after Watergate, every candidate heading into the nominating contests with the most money has gone on to win the nomination.

While most of the Democrats are pouring their limited resources into a handful of states, Dean is funding active campaigns through most of the states voting in February. His fundraising success has allowed him to bypass the public financing system that would otherwise limit his campaign spending.

Even if he stumbles in Iowa or the predominantly Southern and Southwestern states voting Feb. 3, he has strong organizations in subsequent February contests like Michigan and Washington on Feb. 7, Maine on Feb. 8, Virginia on Feb. 10 and Wisconsin on Feb. 17.

"We're fighting on no matter what. No other candidate can say that," said Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi.

"Super Tuesday" comes March 2, when New York, California and 10 other mostly large states vote. That's when the nomination is expected to be effectively locked up, although Florida could have some say the following week if the nomination is still in play.

Iowa's outsized influence is not so much about picking winners as it is about winnowing out losers and elevating underdogs. George McGovern put the Iowa caucuses on the national map with his surprising second place finish in 1972, and Jimmy Carter came from nowhere to win the caucuses in 1976. Since 1972, no one from either party has won the nomination without finishing in the top three in Iowa.

What looked like a Gephardt-Dean race for first place is now a four-man battle. Edwards and Kerry, even if they don't win, both can resuscitate their once struggling campaigns. They hope to earn big boosts as they head into New Hampshire and later contests.

Ultimately, though, the battle in Iowa and beyond is still about who - if anyone - becomes a viable challenger to Dean.

- Adam C. Smith can be reached at adam@sptimes.com or 727 893-8241.

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