Iowa win revives Kerry; lagging Dean vows fight

John Edwards finishes a strong second; Howard Dean remains defiant in third; Dick Gephardt is likely to drop out.

DES MOINES, Iowa - Iowans dramatically shuffled the deck in the presidential race Monday, handing a big win to Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and loosening Howard Dean's grip on front-runner status.

Ending one of the most volatile and unpredictable caucus races in at least 16 years, Iowa Democrats also jump-started the campaign of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and dealt a mortal blow to Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's campaign.

Gephardt was expected to drop out of the race today, ending a 33-year political career.

With most of the tally complete late Monday, Kerry had earned the support of 38 percent of caucusgoers, compared to 32 percent for Edwards, 18 percent for Dean and 11 percent for Gephardt.

Trailing far behind were longshot candidates, including Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York, as well Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and former Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas. Lieberman and Clark skipped Iowa to focus on New Hampshire's Jan. 27 primary.

"Thank you Iowa for making me the comeback Kerry," the senator declared late Monday. ". . . I make you this pledge: I have only just begun to fight."

Although the battle for the Democratic nomination is just beginning, Monday's caucuses marked one of the most stunning political turnarounds in modern presidential politics. Only a few weeks ago, Kerry and Edwards were widely being written off as noncontenders.

"The people of Iowa tonight confirmed that they believe in a positive and uplifting vision to change America," Edwards told cheering supporters in Des Moines before heading to New Hampshire.

Dean congratulated Kerry and Edwards on CNN and said being "the target of everybody for a long time" had taken its toll.

But to supporters, he returned to his familiar combative style, promising to keep fighting in New Hampshire and beyond: "We will not quit now or ever! We want our country back for average Americans."

Kerry was seen as a top contender a year ago, but his campaign struggled while Dean's vocal antiwar stance and unprecedented Internet fundraising propelled him to the front of the field.

Floundering in his home turf of New Hampshire, Kerry began pouring much of his energy and resources into Iowa. He and Edwards started picking up steam among Iowa Democratic activists within the past month, and polls last week showed their surges had turned the race into a four-way dead heat.

Still, many veteran Iowa observers doubted the momentum of Edwards and Kerry could overcome the vast organizations of Dean and Gephardt. Thousands of out-of-state volunteers in bright orange hats fanned across the state to turn out voters for Dean, while an army of union organizers worked the state for Gephardt.

In the end momentum trumped organization. A strong antiwar streak runs through the Democratic electorate in Iowa, but voters appeared less concerned about Kerry and Edwards voting to authorize the war in Iraq and more impressed with their potential strength against President Bush.

Kerry, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, touts his ability to challenge Bush in an election where national security will be a central issue.

"I know something about aircraft carriers for real," Kerry often tells crowds, referring to Bush's appearance on a carrier last spring to declare major fighting in Iraq over. "And if George Bush wants a debate about national security, I have three words for him: Bring it on."

Edwards, who won over many Iowans with an overwhelmingly positive campaign, stresses his ability as Southerner to challenge Bush in all regions of the country.

"The South is not George Bush's back yard. It is my back yard and I will beat George Bush in my back yard, and you can take it to the bank," Edwards frequently told crowds.

Now the race moves to New Hampshire, where Clark and Lieberman will try to halt their rivals' momentum. It could well turn into a home turf battle dominated by two New Englanders, Dean and Kerry. But ignoring Iowa appeared to pay off for Clark, who has steadily eroded Dean's once overwhelming lead in New Hampshire polls.

Independent-minded New Hampshire voters have a history of ignoring Iowa's caucus results.

Gephardt won the caucuses in 1988, but finished second in New Hampshire and ran out of gas soon after. George Bush beat Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980, but Reagan wound up winning New Hampshire and the nomination. Arizona Sen. John McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 and then beat George W. Bush in New Hampshire.

One New Hampshire poll released Sunday suggested the momentum that Kerry and Edwards picked up in Iowa had at least partly transferred to New Hampshire. Kerry had jumped nine points in six days, putting him in third place just behind Clark, according the American Research Group Poll. Edwards picked up five points, overtaking Lieberman for fourth place in New Hampshire. Dean still led the field with support from 28 percent of likely New Hampshire voters, followed by 20 percent for Clark and 19 for Kerry.

The stakes in Iowa were high for Dean, who dominated the field for much of the last year. But as his rivals hammered him over controversial statements and his record on Medicare, race relations and trade, many undecided Iowa Democrats turned to Edwards and Kerry.

A common bumper sticker at Kerry rallies in Iowa: "Dated Dean, Married Kerry."

Dean leaves Iowa looking considerably weaker than he did a few weeks ago. Nearly eight in 10 party activists attending the caucuses preferred another candidate. A Des Moines Register poll on Sunday showed one in three likely caucusgoers had an unfavorable view of the former Vermont governor.

But despite the Iowa setback, the well-funded Dean remains the best equipped to continue mounting strong campaigns in the slew of contests that follow New Hampshire's primary next week. His rivals could be struggling to fund aggressive campaigns after New Hampshire.

"We need more resources to continue this momentum, so please dig deep and help fund our campaign to change America," the Kerry campaign said in an e-mail fundraising solicitation Monday.

On Feb. 3 seven states, including South Carolina and Arizona, hold elections. Michigan and Washington follow on Feb. 7, and then Maine on Feb. 8, Tennessee and Virginia on Feb. 10, Nevada on Feb. 14 and Wisconsin on Feb. 17.

Many strategists see the Feb. 3 contests as a crucial test that will decide whether the nomination might remain in play into March.

South Carolina will be a must-win state for Edwards.

Florida holds its primary March 9.

No one had more to lose in Iowa than Gephardt, a fellow Midwesterner who won the caucuses when running for president in 1988.

Even Gephardt, 62, had acknowledged that anything less than victory would likely end his campaign and his 33-year political career.

"Life will go on, because this was never about me. It was about all of us. It was about our future," Gephardt told supporters Monday.

- Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com

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