Analysts say the larger-than-expected reports from many retailers seems to signal a stronger recovery.
By Associated Press
Published February 6, 2004
NEW YORK - Consumers lured by record-breaking cold temperatures and clearance sales continued their spending spree in January, lifting sales well above expectations for many of the nation's retailers. Even those merchants who lagged behind the competition in recent months did well.
Some of the big surprises came from May Department Stores Inc., Sears, Roebuck and Co., and teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch, all of which reported results that soared past Wall Street estimates. There were a few disappointments, including Talbots Inc., which blamed sharper-than-expected sales declines on its lack of winter inventory.
The robust January performance followed a respectable holiday season for many stores, and signaled to some analysts that a consumer spending recovery, uneven in the past, seems to be gaining more traction.
"This is definitely a lot stronger than expected," said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers. "And it is across the board. This is a taste of the kind of performance we're likely to see in 2004."
He added that the frigid weather was a big positive, helping to boost sales of winter apparel and other cold weather items.
January - the final and least important month in the retail sales calendar - was not expected to be strong, given that stores had little inventory to clear. But some retailers including Gap Inc. and JC Penney Co. Inc. reported they did well with regular-priced merchandise, including spring apparel.
Redemption of holiday gift cards also helped sales.
Niemira said the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS sales tally of about 72 retailers was up 5.8 percent for the month, much better than the 4 percent to 4.5 percent gain previously expected. The tally is based on what the industry calls same-store sales, those from stores open at least a year. They are considered the best measure of a retailer's health.
Retailers' upbeat reports coincided with mixed economic news from the government. The Labor Department reported that the productivity of America's workers slowed in the final three months of 2003, although it was at a still satisfactory pace.
The department also said new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week by a seasonally adjusted 17,000 to 356,000. Some of the increase was related to bad weather in some states, which resulted in layoffs from weather-sensitive companies. Economists anticipated that claims would hold steady.
A shopper's own job security is often the greatest factor in how much a consumer buys. But for the first half of the year, spending is expected to be propped up by such factors as tax refunds and mortgage refinancings, according to Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research.
"The second half is really going to depend on the kind of job growth we will get," he said.
Low- to mid-price stores have been slow to benefit from the economic recovery, but their strong performances last month may signal that these consumers are feeling better about their economic situation.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, posted same-store sales of 5.7 percent, exceeding the 4.1 percent estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call. But the discounter said fourth-quarter earnings would be at the low end of forecasts because of a new tax law in Germany.
Rival Target Corp. posted a 5.1 percent increase, better than the 4.7 percent Wall Street expected.
Among department stores, Kohl's Corp., which has suffered with same-stores sales declines over the past few months, recorded a 0.3 percent gain. The figure exceeded the 1.1 percent drop analysts expected.
May said same-store sales were up 4.6 percent, compared to a forecast decline of 0.4 percent. Sears reported a same-store sales increase of 4.6 percent in its domestic business; analysts expected a 0.4 percent increase.
Penney's department store group recorded a 6.4 percent gain in same-store sales, exceeding the 2.3 percent analysts forecast.
On Tuesday, Federated Department Stores Inc., raised its fourth-quarter earnings outlook and announced a larger-than expected 5.5 percent same-store gain. Analysts expected 0.3 percent.
Upscale retailers Nordstrom Inc. and Neiman Marcus Group Inc., again pleased Wall Street. Nordstrom posted an 8.7 percent gain in same-store sales. Neiman Marcus Group had a 15.2 percent same-store sales gain.
Gap Inc. had a 3 percent same-store sales gain, versus a 3.2 percent estimated decline.
Meanwhile, Abercrombie & Fitch reported a 2 percent increase in same-store sales, surpassing forecasts of an 8.1 percent decline. It also raised its fourth-quarter earnings outlook.
But at Talbots, same-store sales fell 11.8 percent.
Chairman Arnold Zetcher promised that Talbots will increase its inventory in "anticipation of what we believe will be healthy demand for our new spring receipts."
