Turnout key to success of Iran elections

TEHRAN, Iran - In a blitz of patriotic broadcasts and dissident messages, Islamic hard-liners and reformers dueled Friday during parliamentary elections that point to a conservative sweep but raise a bigger question: Did the reformist boycott succeed or crumble?

What is revealed from the mountain of paper ballots, possibly today, might determine the credibility of the reform movement and its drive to make the all-powerful Iranian theocracy more accountable to elected officials and the public.

Reformers, outraged by the banning of more than 2,400 candidates, hoped for a widespread snub of the voting to humble the leadership just a week after the 25th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

Blocked from the mainstream media, liberals fired off proboycott e-mails and mobile phone messages to millions of people.

"Don't take part in the funeral of freedom," one message said.

But the conservative establishment fought back hard.

It pulled out all the stops - led by nonstop appeals and programs on state television and radio - and claimed a big turnout buried the boycott effort. A significant turnout would give the clerics' little reason to make democratic concessions.

In a possible early indication of turnout, election official Hossein Azimzadeh estimated up to 2-million of Tehran's 6.4-million voters, or more than 31 percent, cast ballots, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported. That compares with 42 percent for the capital in parliamentary elections four years ago.

Turnout in the rest of the country was expected to be higher than in Tehran, a stronghold of reformers. Polls were kept open four hours later than planned to draw in every last vote, and the longer hours delayed the vote count.

"You see how those who are against the Iranian nation and the revolution are trying so hard to prevent people from going to the polls," said Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The candidate ban by a Khamenei-appointed panel left fewer than 250 veteran reformers among nearly 4,500 candidates and provoked one of Iran's most serious political crises in decades.

It means the 290-seat Parliament will likely return to the control of lawmakers loyal to, or at least tolerant of, the unelected clerics who say their rule is divinely inspired.

The immediate significance would be an end to the ideological clashes that have paralyzed the legislature since the reformists won a two-thirds majority in 2000.

Parliament has little power, since all key measures need approval from the appointed conservative clerics. But the new lawmakers could have a free hand to pass budgets that support conservative factions and outlets, such as state broadcasting.

A victory for conservatives also would consolidate hard-line control at a sensitive time. In Iraq, Shiite Muslims are pressing for early elections and look to predominantly Shiite Iran for backing.

The former champion of the reformers, President Mohammad Khatami, was stoned-faced as he cast his ballot and conceded: "Whatever the result of the elections, we must accept it."

Assessing turnout was complicated by the sheer number of polling stations. Nearly 40,000 ballot sites were set up around the country in mosques, schools and even cemeteries.

More than 46-million people 15 and older were eligible to vote. No voting was planned in Bam in southeastern Iran, which was devastated by an earthquake Dec. 26.

A sampling of voting stations around Tehran suggested a mixed result.

At one mosque in an upscale neighborhood, just four voters came during a half hour in late afternoon. At the same time, more than 30 people voted in more conservative south Tehran.

At both places, local journalists said the turnout appeared lighter than for presidential elections in 2001, when two-thirds of the voters cast ballots.

In a working-class Tehran suburb, buses brought voters to the polls.

In the eastern city of Mashhad, a bastion of conservative Islam, no large crowds were seen around voting stations, but the turnout appeared moderate.

A look at the leadership structure and powers in Iran:

SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI: The ultimate decision-maker on all major state and religious matters. He appoints all key positions in the ruling theocracy and controls judiciary and Revolutionary Guards. Supporters believe he is incapable of error and answerable only to God.

GUARDIAN COUNCIL: Vets all candidates for Parliament, president and other elected posts. Power to veto any legislation. Composed of six Islamic clerics and six legal scholars hand-picked by Khamenei.

EXPEDIENCY COUNCIL: A 32-member unelected group dominated by conservatives and led by former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mediates in disputes between Guardian Council and Parliament. Advises supreme leader.

EXPERT ASSEMBLY: A group of 87 Islamic clerics. Constitution says it oversees supreme leader, but actual role is unclear.

PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI: Highest elected leader. Leads most aspects of government, but important decisions need backing of supreme leader. Khatami's second and final term expires in 2005.

PARLIAMENT: Structured as Western-style legislative branch, but all key measures by 290-seat chamber must have the backing of supreme leader. Main powers in setting budget and other fiscal matters. Lawmakers have four-year terms.

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