Edwards' Fla. backers hope there's a hope

As the senator's supporters work at the grass roots, Democratic leaders say the race may well be over by the time the state votes on March 9.

Edwards

ST. PETERSBURG - A dozen true believers streamed into the Globe Coffee Lounge on Tuesday night to make plans to wave signs, distribute fliers and phone Democrats to promote North Carolina Sen. John Edwards before Florida's upcoming presidential primary.

"I'm talking to every person I see about John Edwards," said Pam Haengel, a St. Petersburg property manager. "I just came from the drive-through at McDonald's and told the guy that gave the Happy Meals for my kids he needs to vote for John Edwards."

Such enthusiasm is common among optimistic grass roots Edwards supporters in Florida. To much of the state's Democratic leadership, though, Florida's March 9 primary is shaping up as a likely victory lap for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

Florida Sens. Bob Graham and Bill Nelson, often mentioned as vice presidential contenders, are expected to endorse Kerry soon. They tentatively plan to join him as he flies through the state Wednesday.

Many other party leaders also are backing Kerry. They say he has the Democratic nomination all but locked up after winning 18 of 20 primaries and caucuses and looking strong in the 10 states voting in next week's "Super Tuesday." Kerry is scheduled to celebrate the Super Tuesday results in Tampa.

"You can certainly make the scenario that Edwards does surprise people and Florida is important ...," said Sen. Nelson, who declined to confirm a pending endorsement of Kerry. "But my gut tells me this is going to be pretty well wrapped up by Super Tuesday."

With so many states voting before March 9, Florida Democrats have received little attention from the presidential contenders and have had little say in choosing their nominee. While nine Democratic candidates will be on the ballot March 9 (but not former presidential candidate Graham), states such as Iowa and Wisconsin have culled the field of real contenders.

In December, a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll showed former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman locked in a close race for first place among Florida Democrats. All have dropped out. The poll showed Kerry with support from 6 percent of Florida Democrats, Edwards and the Rev. Al Sharpton at 3 percent, and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich with less than 1 percent.

Longshot candidates Kucinich and Sharpton are still campaigning. Sharpton is not expected to campaign extensively in Florida, but he will stop in the Little Haiti section of Miami next week on the way to and from Haiti, which is torn by an uprising against President Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

Kucinich, who won his first second place showing in Hawaii's caucuses Tuesday, plans to campaign Wednesday in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. He will include stops in Clearwater, Pinellas Park and St. Petersburg and at the University of South Florida in Tampa.

The fight for the nomination has turned into a two-man battle between Kerry and Edwards, but a number of prominent Democrats question whether Edwards remains competitive. He has won only one state, South Carolina, and he has won less than a third of the delegates Kerry has accumulated. Kerry has collected nearly one-third of the 2,162 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

More than 1,000 delegates are at stake Tuesday when California, New York, Ohio and seven other states vote. Polls show Kerry leading handily in most of those states. Florida has 177 delegates to deliver March 9.

"Personally, I don't think he's relevant right now, but the question is, does he stay in the race after Super Tuesday," said Jon Ausman of Tallahassee, a Kerry backer and member of the Democratic National Committee.

Seven of Florida's 11 DNC members are publicly backing Kerry.

Edwards wins widespread praise among Florida Democrats, but many fans doubt his prospects.

"I think a lot of John Edwards, but it appears to me the train is leaving with Kerry, so I'm just going to see how this shakes out," said Democratic state Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville, who doubts Kerry could carry Florida unless he adds Edwards or another Southerner to his ticket.

Prominent Democrats endorsing Edwards include Rep. Corrine Brown of Jacksonville, a former Dean supporter, and state House Minority Leader Doug Wiles of St. Augustine.

Wayne Hogan, a Jacksonville trial lawyer and former congressional candidate, has been stumping for Edwards across northeast and Central Florida. Hogan insists it's too early to count him out.

"This has been a year of foregone conclusions that have gone away," Hogan said. "There's a tremendous amount of enthusiasm for Edwards among the activists."

Hillsborough Democratic chairwoman Janee Murphy is neutral in the race but hears the same thing. In organizing a March 6 Democratic rally at Lowry Park in Tampa, she said she has been surprised at how many Republicans and former Howard Dean supporters are fired up about the North Carolina senator.

"Watch out for Edwards," she said.

Among the Super Tuesday states, Edwards has been working most aggressively in Georgia, Ohio and New York. The contests that follow a week later include Florida, Texas, Mississippi and Louisiana. That's a decidedly Southern mix of states that would appear to offer strong potential for Edwards, but how he fares Tuesday should determine how much subsequent contests matter.

"John Edwards would need to win at least 60 percent of the delegates Tuesday in order for this to be anything but a token primary (in Florida)," said Fort Lauderdale lawyer Mitchell Berger, who had been Lieberman's national finance co-chairman but this week organized South Florida fundraisers featuring Kerry's brother.

- Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com

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