Giving credit where it's been due

	Ed. Cassidy Academy Member
	Sean Penn, top, in Mystic River, and Charlize Theron, below, in Monster, get the experts’ nods in the best actor and actress categories.
	The Oscar experts weigh in The contingent from The Lord of the Rings is hereby warned: Get your speeches ready.

One thing I'm certain of after 17 years as a member of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences is that we are a loyal group. We don't forget those who should have won an Oscar in the past, all victims of our membership's quirky voting habits.

So welcome to tonight's "make good" Oscars, an evening that will be devoted to restitution.

Pressured last year by politicians and the media, the Oscars were downsized and deglammed as the Iraq war was launched. Fashion designers, jewelers and stylists - not to mention the academy itself - lost millions of dollars of post-awards exposure when the red carpet was rolled up. So the academy is making good on its promise to restore all the glamor, glitz and goofy hysteria to the 76th annual awards.

The academy also made good on its promise to expel any member caught releasing a video screener copy of a movie. It kicked out 70-year-old character actor Carmine Caridi when it was discovered that he had sent many of his screeners to an Illinois man who is federally charged with putting them on the Internet for others to download. And academy leadership says it's determined to make good on a promise to telecast the awards without ABC's five-second delay, deeming it censorship. But nobody wants to risk offending viewers or advertisers, the latter of whom are paying a record $1.5-million for a 30-second ad.

So look for me in the mezzanine tonight, watching (and hearing) the Oscars five seconds before you do. And come Tuesday in the St. Petersburg Times, look for my recap of the evening's highs and lows.

And now, without delay, my predictions of who will win, with my votes noted:

BEST PICTURE: The long-awaited coronation of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in a make-good after Rings I and II lost their best pic bids. The three Rings have earned 30 nominations and won only a measly six Oscars, all but one in production categories. So it's about time for a much-deserved and long-overdue best pic statuette.

BEST ACTOR: Sean Penn in Mystic River, in a make-good for getting bypassed eight years ago for Dead Man Walking. My vote went to the swishbuckling Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, but I'll look forward to activist Penn's acceptance speech (if it's not bleeped out).

BEST ACTRESS: Charlize Theron for her dressed-down performance in Monster, on the winning heels of Nicole Kidman dressed down in The Hours, Halle Berry dressed down in Monster's Ball, Julia Roberts dressed down in Erin Brockovich, Hilary Swank dressed down in Boys Don't Cry - see a trend developing here? My vote went to Samantha Morton, dressed down in In America.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tim Robbins for Mystic River, in a make-good for being ignored nine years ago for The Shawshank Redemption. Robbins' acceptance speech will no doubt be the second-most anticipated of the evening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Iranian actor Shohreh Aghdashloo should win for House of Sand and Fog. We love you, Renee Zellweger, but c'mon, do you really want to be remembered for your unconvincing Annie Oakleyish role in Cold Mountain? I think your make-good will come in the future with either Ron Howard's Cinderella Man or Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason. Hey, maybe for both?

BEST DIRECTOR: Finally, Peter Jackson wins with Rings III (a make-good for directing and adapting Rings I and II). And no actor (Clint Eastwood), no legendary director (Peter Weir), no daughter of Hollywood royalty (Sofia Coppola) and no Fernando Meirelles (who?) can deny Jackson this year.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Finding Nemo, as if a worldwide box office take of $900-million isn't reward enough.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Sofia Coppola will win easily for her highly overrated Lost in Translation, a numbing film that somehow managed to snag four nominations. It's a shame, because this award really belongs to Jim Sheridan and his daughters Naomi and Kristen for In America (I started sobbing all over again just casting my vote for this heart-wrenching film).

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Gary Ross for Seabiscuit, in a make-good for losing his original screenplay bid for 1988's ingenious Big. Plus, it's the only real opportunity the beloved Seabiscuit has to win a statuette tonight.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Sans doute, The Barbarian Invasions, Canada's third nominated French-language film in 18 years, will win. Now, can somebody please explain why the academy snubbed Brazil's City of God entry in this category last year, not even nominating it, but handed the extremely violent pic four big nominations this year after it was released in U.S. theaters?

BEST FILM EDITING: The third Rings turns to gold, with Jamie Selkirk doing what the Rings I and II editors couldn't.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ngila Dickson gets another Rings nomination, and she'll win, not for Rings III but for The Last Samurai. You would think Girl With a Pearl Earring could easily take this category, but star Scarlett Johansson joked one too many times that her costumes made her look like an oversized Q-Tip.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Rings III was bypassed in this category, making way for first-time nominee Russell Boyd for Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.

BEST ART DIRECTION: Girl With a Pearl Earring easily got my vote for bringing Johannes Vermeer's 17th century paintings to life. But because Rings I and II failed to win here, it's time for Rings III to win.

BEST MAKEUP: Rings I won in 2001, but Rings II's makeup ran, missing a nomination last year. So, will the academy actually give an award to Depp's mascara in Pirates of the Caribbean? Not likely. Rings III will win a second statuette for Richard Taylor.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: No one can resist Two Soldiers, based on William Faulkner's heartbreaking story of a little boy running away to find his big brother, who has gone off to war.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: Everyone's fave is the bizarre Destino, the lost Walt Disney/Salvador Dali 1946 collaboration brought to the screen by Walt's nephew Roy Edward Disney. Hey, Dali Museum, I smell a great fundraising opportunity here.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The harrowing Capturing the Friedmans will win over the equally harrowing Robert McNamara bio Fog of War.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Katja Esson's not-so-short film about women preening in the restroom of the Staten Island Ferry in Ferry Tales.

BEST SOUND MIXING: Though I thought the Master and Commander battle sequences were far superior, the Rings III team, headed by Christopher Boyes (nominated against himself for Pirates of the Caribbean), finally conquers after losing for Rings I and II.

Best sound editing: What? A technical category with no Rings III nomination? Well, then, a much-deserved Oscar goes to Master and Commander and first-time nominee Richard King.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: A no-brainer, because Rings I and II won. Despite a strong challenge from the Pirates of the Caribbean team, it's a sure bet Rings will go three for three.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: They're all clunkers, so it really comes down to best performance. You have to love Annie Lennox growling away with Rings III's Into the West, which she co-wrote with Howard Shore and Rings trilogy producer Fran Walsh. Don't worry, we'll find another make-good year for Sting, whose Cold Mountain dud will mark his third loss.

Best original score: Though my pick is Thomas Newman's terrific score for Nemo, he's certain to lose on his sixth nomination to Howard Shore's very loud Rings III.

- Ed. Cassidy is marketing director of the St. Petersburg Times and a 17-year member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

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