The Oscar experts weigh in

The contingent from The Lord of the Rings is hereby warned: Get your speeches ready.

[Photo: New Line Cinema]

It’s agreed: Both of our experts pick Lord of the Rings director Peter Jackson and The Return of the King to win tonight’s top awards.

	Giving credit where it's been due One thing I'm certain of after 17 years as a member of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences is that we are a loyal group.

Best picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. This decision has been in the making for three years. Oscar voters wouldn't anoint The Fellowship of the Ring and The Two Towers, knowing that something bigger and probably better was coming. It came, we saw. Rings conquers.

Best director: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Nobody ever had created three movies (practically) at once, and the $300-million gamble paid off after Part One. Jackson recently claimed the Directors Guild of America prize; only six winners since 1949 didn't win the Oscar.

Best actor: Sean Penn, Mystic River. Nobody predicted 20 years ago that Jeff Spicoli (Penn in Fast Times at Ridgemont High) and Carl Spackler (Bill Murray in Caddyshack) would be neck and neck in a race for this Oscar. Penn has long been admired as an actor's actor, he's minding his manners during awards season, and he should win an overdue Academy Award.

Best actress: Charlize Theron, Monster. Her physical transformation into serial killer Aileen Wuornos is already Hollywood legend. Theron's emotional portrayal, her intense immersion into someone else's warped soul, simply can't be bypassed if the academy wishes to preserve its credibility. I love Diane Keaton (Something's Gotta Give) but seeing her win would be a shame.

Best supporting actor: Tim Robbins, Mystic River. Robbins could be in the lead actor category with a role so meaty and crucial to Clint Eastwood's drama. His progressively haunted character - a child abuse victim grown into damaged adulthood - was played to perfection. Robbins' political activism also makes this Oscar's best chance for a controversial acceptance speech this year.

Best supporting actress: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain. Although I can't believe people are falling for Zellweger's Mammy Yokum routine, Miramax has to buy at least one major Oscar each year, so it may as well be someone who has lost twice before.

Best animated film: Finding Nemo. The lock of the night. The highest grossing film of 2003 was also its best technical breakthrough, making every animated film preceding it seem obsolete. Three other nominations alongside live action works doesn't hurt. Pixar Animation Studios gets one more last laugh at Disney's expense.

Best original screenplay: Lost in Translation. Sofia Coppola's script sounded deceptively simple, but that's part of its brilliance. Complex ideas about alienation, of two people out of place in a foreign country and within themselves, make this a gem of the art. Since Jackson has the directors' race sewn up, Coppola gets her due here.

Best adapted screenplay: Brian Helgeland, Mystic River. His version of Eckerd College graduate Dennis Lehane's novel had the greatest number of finely detailed characters in any 2003 film. Their relationships with each other were complicated, tragic and written with a gritty grace that suits director Clint Eastwood's style.

Best foreign language film: The Barbarian Invasions. Canada wins its first Academy Award in this category for Denys Arcand's urbane ensemble drama. A dying man reunites his family and friends for a farewell party, yet the film shies away from sentiment, offering a sexy, profane eulogy of manners.

Best film editing: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. A distinct trend has emerged in this category over the years: The award usually goes to the best picture winner or, oddly enough, the film with the longest running time. The Return of the King meets both criteria.

Best costume design: The Last Samurai. Hobbit haberdashery has been done twice before, so I expect voters to look elsewhere. The Last Samurai's medieval-looking Japanese styles are the most exotic and uncommon of all the nominees'.

Best cinematography: Seabiscuit. John Schwartzman won the American Cinematographer Award three weeks ago. Plenty of Oscar voters depend on guild decisions in technical categories when they mark their ballots.

Best makeup: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Although it's often hard to tell where the latex stops and the computer programs begin.

Best live action short film: Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket). Purely a guess since I've seen none of the nominees. Director Florian Baxmeyer previously won a Student Academy Award, so voters are familiar with her.

Best animated short film: Destino. Disney gets a consolation prize after Finding Nemo and losing Pixar. Michael Eisner still gets jabbed: This movie was Walt Disney's idea a half-century ago, and his nephew Roy (Eisner's corporate nemesis) resurrected the project.

Best documentary feature: The Fog of War. Errol Morris has been overlooked by the academy too long, and this film couldn't be timelier. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara candidly explains what went wrong in Vietnam, and the audience can't avoid comparing his experiences to the war in Iraq.

Best documentary short: Asylum. A provocative subject (genital mutilation as social custom) and Sundance Film Festival success should attract Oscar voters.

Best original song: Into the West from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. But really, who cares? Nobody's humming any of the nominees this year.

Best original score: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Composer Howard Shore already has an Oscar for The Two Towers and a Golden Globe for this film.

Best sound editing: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. Hey, after 10 nominations the movie has to win something.

Best art direction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. The first two films in the trilogy were nominated and lost. Third time's the charm.

Best sound mixing: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. See art direction.

Best visual effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. On the other hand, both The Fellowship of the Ring and The Two Towers won this prize. Make it a hat trick.

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