Now that John Kerry has locked up the Democratic nomination, it's time to resurrect the Bob Graham vice presidential sweepstakes, a parlor game familiar to many Floridians.
Kerry campaign advisers confirm Graham is among several top contenders for his running mate. Those who remember his placement on short lists in 2000, 1992 and 1988 should understand the reasoning: Florida, Florida and Florida.
Graham is the popular senior Democrat in the country's biggest swing state.
Just planting him in Florida to traverse the state would at the very least force Republicans to commit loads of energy and money defending the must-win 27 electoral votes. Graham would offer geographic balance to the Massachusetts senator, bring gubernatorial experience to the ticket and add to Kerry's national security credentials.
This year, though, some new wrinkles are thrown into the Graham veepstakes game.
For one thing, he made his presidential campaign debut last year and flopped. Short on money and hope, he dropped out of the race even before former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun.
"What is a running mate's job? It is mostly to campaign. I don't think Bob Graham proved himself to be a very effective campaigner," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the Cook Political Report.
On the stump, the 67-year-old Graham often told voters, "I can win Florida and I won't need a 5-4 vote by the Supreme Court." But his often-harsh criticism of Bush while running for president hurt Graham's centrist appeal, and polls showed President Bush comfortably beating Graham in Florida.
Another variable for the Graham veepstakes is the addition of an alternative Florida prospect. Sen. Bill Nelson might lack Graham's stature in Florida, but people in Washington have noticed his energy and skill on TV.
"Graham, a former governor, is better known in Florida. But Nelson is a fresher face who might do better nationally," syndicated columnist Robert Novak wrote this week.
Graham and Nelson are expected to endorse Kerry today and join him at a campaign event in Orlando.
On the campaign trail in caucus and primary states, voters overwhelmingly talked up one vice presidential contender above all others: North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
Edwards is a strong campaigner with broad appeal. In the final days of his campaign - he's expected to drop out today - he became a stronger critic of Kerry, but never showed a bare-knuckle style Kerry could expect in a running mate.
Also, many people doubt he would carry North Carolina as a running mate.
The list of potential running mates being tossed about by pundits and strategists is vast. It includes such unlikely rock-the-political-landscape candidates as Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to such what's-the-name-again? prospects as Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen.
There are names of former public officials, such as former Georgia Sens. Sam Nunn and Max Cleland and former Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. And there are rising Democratic stars such as Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford and Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano.
Among the most frequently named:
MISSOURI REP. DICK GEPHARDT. The former presidential candidate offers strong appeal in the battleground states of the industrial Midwest and can be a tough critic of Bush. But do Democrats want a ticket of two longtime Washington insiders?
INDIANA SEN. EVAN BAYH. The popular former governor would bring centrist appeal to the Kerry ticket. But Bayh's ability to carry Indiana, which Bush handily won in 2000, is uncertain at best.
NEW MEXICO GOV. BILL RICHARDSON. The former congressman, U.N. ambassador and energy secretary has the resume and, as a Hispanic, could energize a crucial minority group courted by both parties. Coming from a state with just five electoral votes doesn't help.
The vice presidential guessing game usually proves to be futile. What's more, the choice rarely makes a big difference. Not since John F. Kennedy picked Lyndon Johnson has a selection clearly carried a nominee to victory.
"You've got to get elected, that's the objective," Kerry told radio host Don Imus on Tuesday. "You want to choose somebody who can help you do that and also help you govern effectively."
If he's looking for ideas, a couple of Florida senators expected to be at his side in Orlando today surely would have some thoughts.
- Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com
