In his first State of the State address delivered five years ago this month, Gov. Jeb Bush urged Florida lawmakers to make tough decisions or face a troubling future as Florida entered a new century.
The new governor warned of a future with "two Floridas" - one with a booming economy, but another that would fail its most vulnerable citizens: school children, seniors and the disabled.
"We have a historic opportunity to do what's right," Bush said in 1999. "Let's not blow it."
In his sixth State of the State address delivered Tuesday, Bush made no mention of a Florida that's become even more widely split between haves and have-nots. He painted a mostly upbeat picture of a state making progress on many fronts and more than holding its own in the competitive 21st century.
If there were an Oscar category for Best Rose-Colored Remarks, this would be a contender.
Bush's bland speech was a missed opportunity for some plain talk in trying times. The governor proposed no new economic or business initiatives. To quote the governor's own press release, Bush simply "called on legislators to build on the reforms of the past five years, saying that progress in education, the economy and families make Florida an excellent place to call home."
Don't get me wrong. State of the State speeches are meant to be optimistic. It's good to focus on the positive.
Just don't make the State of the State sound like a State of Denial.
Sure. By some measures, Florida is prospering. Here are three examples.
Florida is creating more new jobs than other states (in fact, many states are losing jobs) and has done so for nearly two years.
Florida's economy continues to enjoy the arrival of more people relocating here than any other state.
Florida's school kids are showing some tangible gains in test scores and educational performance.
But let's peel another layer off the "good news."
Florida may be creating new jobs, but looks are deceiving. On average, Florida jobs in industries that are growing pay $29,979. That's $5,374 less than the $35,353 average pay for jobs in industries that are shrinking in Florida.
Florida may be creating new (if lower-paying) jobs, but not fast enough to meet the needs of all the people moving into Florida.
And if Florida's public schools are improving, they remain mired near the bottom of U.S. states. Florida's high school graduation rate, no matter which way it is measured, remains among the lowest in the country.
That could be a public relations problem for a state that likes to throw around phrases like its "knowledge-based economy."
The killer trend in Florida's economy is something Bush did not address in Tuesday's speech.
In the early 1990s, Floridians earned 90.2 percent of the U.S. average paycheck. That gap widened so that by 2000, Floridians earned just 86.9 percent of the U.S. average. Since then, Florida workers gained slightly. By 2002, their pay was up to 87.9 percent of the national average.
Translation? Florida's economy is not keeping up with the nation's.
That's a nasty trend acknowledged by Enterprise Florida, the state's own economic development agency. And for a highly populated state with visions of 21st century economic grandeur, that pay differential will be tough to overcome; especially with the rising threat of more types of jobs being shipped out of this country to such low-wage countries as India, China and the Philippines.
Bush called Tuesday for a more diversified economy in Florida, one that presumably moves the state away from its dependence on tourism and more jobs for hotel maids.
Bush also urged more attention to manufacturing jobs, though Florida really has a very small manufacturing base on which to build. The governor reiterated his desire for special funds that could be used to help close deals to relocate businesses to the state, and to help keep military bases in Florida from closing.
And Bush said he wants to build on a theme from last year: state-funded "centers of excellence." In 2003, three universities (University of Florida, University of Central Florida and Florida Atlantic University) successfully pitched high-tech projects and won $10-million apiece from the state to open research facilities.
Now Bush wants to convince the Legislature to approve funding for another round of centers of excellence. The University of South Florida in Tampa, which competed in last year's round for funding, says it is interested - and will be better prepared this time - in seeking approval for its proposed biotech-related center of excellence if state money becomes available.
To Bush's credit, he made only brief mention in his speech to the Scripps Research Institute, the California biotech organization that last fall agreed to build a major East Coast presence in Florida's own Palm Beach County.
"We are stronger because we have built a solid foundation for progress and prosperity," Bush said Tuesday. "A foundation that attracts investment and opportunity like the Scripps Research Institute, as well as high value, high wage jobs, in cutting edge, emerging technologies."
I doubt it was any "solid foundation" that attracted Scripps. It was mostly the $310-million in state funds (augmented with $200-million more in county money) Bush dangled in front of Scripps that convinced it to expand in Florida instead of some other, more biotech-established state.
If Scripps was an expensive catch in the history of Florida economic development, it could be a good one for raising the intellectual and employment bar in this state. But we really won't know for many years if Scripps was worth a half-billion-dollars.
What's the bottom line for Florida's State of the State? To climb a steep economic ladder, we really have our work cut out for us.
