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Taking a dip in the bubble bath

FSU and plenty of others are vying for what are likely 3 or 4 spots left in NCAA Tournament.

Depending on what happens in this week's Big Ten tournament, Purdue coach Gene Keady might not even turn on his television Sunday night for the NCAA Tournament selection show.

"If we win two, we'll be sitting there watching," he said. "Any less than that, I'm not sure."

Such is life for teams teetering on the "bubble" for consideration as one of the 34 at-large choices.

"It seems to me we have more teams under surveillance than we've had in previous years," NCAA Division I-A men's basketball committee chairman Bob Bowlsby said recently. "You're seeing the impact of 13 scholarships in a lot of different ways.

"If you just looked at the ACC, the Big Ten, the Big East, the Big 12, some of those (power) conferences, at 15 scholarships, there's a couple of hundred (more) kids sitting on the bench at major programs who are instead playing at institutions all over the country. ... It makes for great competition. It's one of the things that makes the NCAA Tournament an outstanding event."

It also ratchets up the pressure and excitement on many teams as they enter league tournaments, their last shot to strengthen their credentials.

Conventional wisdom suggests that only the Atlantic 10, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Pac-10, SEC and WAC, and perhaps the Big West and West Coast conferences, will receive multiple bids.

If you then pencil in the teams with solid resumes - including a strong last 10 games, and an RPI (a mathematical formula based on a team's record, its strength of schedule and its opponents' schedule strength) in the top 40 - you're left with about three or four spots and as many as a dozen teams vying for them.

- Florida State. The Seminoles have dynamic wins against Maryland, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech and a decent RPI (48). But they are 0-8 on the road in the ACC and 6-10 in the league. Since the tournament field expanded in 1985, only two teams that finished four games below .500 in their league earned an at-large bid - Iowa State (5-9) in 1992 and FSU (6-10) in 1998, its last NCAA appearance.

The good news is FSU plays No.17 North Carolina State in the ACC tournament quarterfinals Friday.

"It gives us a chance to play against a high-quality team and gives us a chance to keep our postseason tournament dreams alive," FSU coach Leonard Hamilton said.

- Washington. Perhaps no team is hotter than the Huskies. They've won 12 of 14, including two against Arizona and then Saturday against undefeated and then No.1 Stanford. But their RPI is 77. The at-large pick with the highest RPI has been New Mexico (74 in 1999). So, they figure to have work to do in the Pac-10 tournament.

- Missouri. The Tigers, a trendy preseason pick to reach the Final Four, were 9-10 a month ago. They've won six of their past eight to get back on the NCAA radar, but they are 15-12 overall and no at-large team ever has had fewer than 16 wins. They meet Texas A&M on Thursday in the Big 12 tournament. "I think our numbers are sound," coach Quin Snyder said, referring largely to an RPI of 39 and the nation's No.6-rated schedule. "Based on what the committee says, I think we're right there. But obviously, we need to play well and show well (this week)."

- Oklahoma. The Sooners had been nationally ranked most of the season, climbing as high as No.6 on Jan. 5. But they are 8-9 since then and their RPI is an NIT-like 50. "The good thing is we control our destiny; that's all you can ask for," coach Kelvin Sampson said.

- Notre Dame. The Irish have quality wins against UConn, Seton Hall and at Syracuse and are riding a three-game winning streak. An RPI of 47, however, is dangerous territory.

- Michigan. The Wolverines have wins against North Carolina State and Wisconsin and are 8-8 in the Big Ten. But their RPI (59) isn't hot and they need at least one more win. The problem is they open against Iowa, a team that needs to win to stay in the debate.

- Purdue. That brings us back to the Boilermakers. Despite wins against Duke, Seton Hall, at Illinois, Michigan State and Wisconsin, they have an RPI of 97. Keady doesn't understand that.

"We've won five games against the top 50; last week, only 18 teams had done that," he said. "We're with an elite group. I don't know what their problem is. But whoever's judging our schedule didn't like it."

Stay tuned Sunday.

Or not.