Having been through it before, Billy Donovan has learned the secret to avoiding disappointment. Plan for it. Predict it, if you must.
Suggest the possible pitfalls and dwell on the negatives. Point out where the sky might actually fall and remind everyone your umbrella is small.
After all, no one can nominate you for failure if you've already volunteered.
You might have heard Florida is back in the NCAA Tournament. And, furthermore, Donovan might have e-mailed you about his team's deficiencies.
Let's see, the bench is awfully thin and the star guard has a bum foot. Not to mention, the first-round opponent is the greatest No. 12 seed history has known. And, oh, yeah, reaching the final of the Southeastern Conference tournament has given these little knaves so little time to prepare.
"Everything being said in terms of us being upset in the first round," Donovan said, "is very legitimate and very real."
So it has come to this. After all those years of trying to create an aura and deliver a higher level of expectations at Florida, Donovan is retreating.
He is downplaying the collection of talent in his locker room. He is offering a multiple-choice list of excuses. For crying out loud, he is agreeing with the talking heads on TV who say his team might choke.
And, perhaps, he is on to something.
Because, let's face it, Florida has not been a program that has handled prosperity well. So why not give desperation another try?
Why not portray the Gators as the team long on adversity and short on advantages? Why not push the image of players fighting fatigue on their private airplane and arriving at the arena on hospital gurneys?
"I'm excited about what our guys have done," Donovan said. "They've overachieved. They've given me everything I could have wanted as a coach."
Overachieved? The Gators returned three of their top four scorers from a team that went 25-8 last season. When the All-SEC team was named last week, only Kentucky had more players than Florida.
A year ago, when the NCAA Tournament began, Donovan talked of reaching for the stars. Now, he's grabbing for alibis.
The reversal should not come as a shock. The last time the Gators had a memorable March was the last time little was expected of them.
Back in 2000, Florida was considered something of a mirage. A No. 5 seed that was a chic pick to be upset by Butler in the first round. Instead, the Gators reached the championship game for the first time in program history.
Expectations have followed ever since and have never been fulfilled.
Donovan was 8-2 in his first 10 NCAA Tournament games, which had Florida folks scrambling for record books. He's since gone 1-3.
In each of the past three NCAA Tournaments, the Gators have been upset in the first or second round. In 2001, No. 3 Florida lost to No. 11 Temple. The following year, No. 5 Florida lost to No. 12 Creighton. Last year, the Gators were a No. 2 when they lost to No. 7 Michigan State.
This might explain why Donovan is turning expectations down a notch or two. Why he seemed perfectly satisfied with a No. 5 seed, even though Florida's No. 13 RPI rating would suggest a 4, or even 3, seed was possible.
Although it's not like Donovan is fabricating Florida's woes. His team is worn out and does have a quick turnaround before Thursday's first round. Matt Walsh's bad foot is a major concern and the bench is thin.
It's just that Donovan has always pushed forward instead of moving backward. It is what got Florida some of the nation's best recruits and briefly propelled the Gators to the top of the polls the past two seasons.
But his quest for excellence has come at a cost. The Gators have had a number of players leave the program early for pro basketball, including Christian Drejer, who bailed a few weeks ago.
Donovan seemed to recognize his shortcomings when Florida was blown out by Kentucky in the regular-season finale a week ago. He had failed, he said, to recruit enough blue-collar athletes to give the program consistency and experience as four-year players.
Instead, he has had teams that wilt as the season gets longer and the pressure is turned up.
As if on schedule, the Gators have hit their normal stride in recent weeks. That is to say, they tend to wobble and sway now that March has arrived.
For the third year in succession, they go into the NCAA Tournament having gone 7-5 in the previous dozen games.
Maybe this March will be different. Perhaps this time the Gators will find themselves before losing their way. They do, after all, understand the disappointment a quick exit can bring.
