RIPE FOR AN UPSET: Saint Joseph's. Well, not in the first round - Liberty doesn't have the weapons to pose a threat. However, the Hawks' loss to Xavier in the Atlantic 10 tournament was so bad it could have ripped a gaping hole in the team's psyche. If Saint Joseph's is not fully recuperated, a loss in the second round to Charlotte or Texas Tech seems likely.
COULD DO DAMAGE: Memphis. The Tigers were scorching entering the NCAAs last season, then got tripped up in the first round by Arizona State, falling behind early and never threatening. This season they enter under the radar. Meanwhile, potential second-round foe Oklahoma State is a hot pick to make the Final Four. If Memphis survives South Carolina in the first round, the Tigers could make a run at Oklahoma State. The key is point guard Antonio Burks. TOUGHEST DRAW: Pittsburgh. Relatively speaking, the Panthers have it tough. UCF is a legitimate upset threat, then Pitt most likely faces Big Ten tournament champion Wisconsin ... in Milwaukee. The selection committee erred on this one; Pitt earned better with its strong showing this season, including a 28-4 record, wins at Syracuse and Providence and a No. 8 RPI.
NOT SO TOUGH: No. 4 Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are playing just a couple of hours from campus, in Raleigh, N.C. First they face No. 13 seed Virginia Commonwealth, whose most impressive win this season was ... we're still looking for it. In the second round Wake faces Florida, which has wilted when faced with tough defense, or Manhattan, which is a favorable matchup because Wake's strong guard play should negate Manhattan's top player, Luis Flores.
HOME COOKIN': Wisconsin. When a No. 6 seed plays in its home state and has as big a following in that state as Wisconsin does, that's home cookin'.
SWEET 16 PICKS: Saint Joseph's, Wake Forest, Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh.
IF YOU DARE: South Carolina. It is the Gamecocks' first NCAA berth since 1998, not that anyone has noticed.
FINAL WORD: Saint Joseph's Jameer Nelson is a special talent, and the guess here is he will get the Hawks back on track to stymie either Charlotte or Texas Tech in the second round. The Pitt-Wisconsin matchup could be the best of the second round if each can avert the first-round upset. Florida-Wake Forest also could be highly entertaining if both advance.
