Because I hold myself accountable, let me remind you that last year, my picks for undervalued players included Kevin Mench, Jeremy Affeldt and Brandon Duckworth. (Oh, and Adrian Beltre. Feh.) I opted for those luminaries at the expense of, among others, Vernon Wells and Hank Blalock. (I get no points for considering them.) Now, I still like Mench quite a bit and Affeldt a lot, but you're gonna want to weigh that while reading the following. Onward:
FIVE UNDERVALUED PLAYERS
American League
1. Javier Vazquez, RHP, Yankees. Too much has been made of New York's pitching "problems," and one victim of that seems to be Vazquez, whose ability to succeed in the pressure cooker has been questioned. Don't worry about it. He's an elite pitcher, young and durable with excellent command of four plus pitches. He's also smart, tough, a union leader and one of the game's best human beings. Will he be able to handle the pressure of New York? Oh yes he will. He's a Cy Young Award candidate.
2. Milton Bradley, CF, Indians. As a player (I have to emphasize that; not as a person), Bradley reminds me of a young Bernie Williams, who also started to put his game together at age 25. Bradley's plate discipline took a leap last season, and his 34 doubles in 377 at-bats suggest his power will follow shortly. So long as he stays off the DL. (And out of jail.)
3. Byung-Hyun Kim, RHP, Red Sox. I know, I know. He makes you shiver somewhat, and I can't blame you. He's high-strung, he doesn't always seem to handle pressure well (was that diplomatic enough?), he flopped in the ALDS. But since 2001 his ERAs have been 2.94, 2.04 and 3.31, and he had a 3.38 ERA through 12 starts last season before necessity forced him to the bullpen. He's on the DL to start the season but he'll be back in the rotation and he clearly has a starter's arsenal. With Boston's offense, he's a great candidate for 16-18 wins.
4. Victor Martinez, C, Indians. After the obvious 1-2 of Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada (or vice versa), you can take a chance that Javier Lopez will approach his career-best '03, play it safe with someone like Jason Varitek or gamble on Joe Mauer or, my suggestion, Martinez, who is just a year removed from being widely considered the best catching prospect in baseball. A switch-hitter, Martinez will hit .300 in the majors, and his minor-league record suggests 15- to 20-homer power, meaning he'll fall somewhere between Pudge and A.J. Pierzynski with the bat.
5. Ted Lilly, LHP, Blue Jays. I'm a little uncomfortable picking three pitchers here, but there's so much to like about this guy. His overall numbers last season were solid enough (4.34 ERA but 147 strikeouts vs. 58 walks in 1781/3 innings), better than that in the second half (3.45 ERA after the break with a 6-1 record from Aug. 20 on). Former A's pitching coach Rick Peterson had tinkered with his mechanics, and it seems to have paid off. Now in Toronto, Lilly is 28 and a good bet to break out.
National League
1. Nick Johnson, 1B, Expos. The Expos have next to no pitching, but they could score a ton of runs, and Johnson's perhaps the biggest reason. A fragile wrist has kept him from breaking out, but Montreal reportedly put him through a thorough physical before it made the deal. A healthy Johnson could be in the Frank Thomas-Jeff Bagwell class as a hitter.
2. Jake Peavy, RHP, Padres. He battled through trade rumors and an oblique injury in July, when he posted an 8.86 ERA. The rest of the season he was 12-8, 3.53; his ERA in August and September was 3.02. He needs to work the edges of the strike zone more, but he's a four-pitch pitcher with a good, moving fastball and a terrific change, and he might become a legitimate ace in front of San Diego's improved offense.
3. Adam Dunn, LF, Reds. He's bound to improve simply because he's not a .215 hitter, but I'm most encouraged by his comments regarding new hitting coach Chris Chambliss, who is trying to reinforce his natural, disciplined approach. That's the style that made him perhaps the top power prospect in baseball, and it's probably going to win him some home run crowns before he's through.
4. Brad Wilkerson, OF, Expos. Like I said, they're going to score a ton of runs. Wilkerson walks a lot, runs well and hits plenty of doubles and homers, and he turns 27 on June 1, so he's due for a power spike. I've checked out a bunch of fantasy rankings and mock drafts, and Wilkerson is consistently falling behind the likes of Raul Mondesi and Corey Patterson, which is insane. Don't be one of those guys.
5. Kip Wells, RHP, Pirates. I don't really expect to persuade anyone to draft a Pirates pitcher, but here's one who keeps improving. His ERA the past three seasons has gone from 4.79 to 3.58 to 3.28, his opponents' OPS from .798 to .727 to .680. His strikeout rate jumped, too, and he got better as the season went on. He certainly has the stuff to be a front-line pitcher, and he's starting to harness it.
FIVE OVERVALUED PLAYERS
American League
1. Jose Guillen, OF, Angels. He's not the new Sammy Sosa, mainly because his plate discipline did not improve; he entered the season with a 379-96 strikeout-to-walk ratio, then went 95-24, virtually the same. His slugging percentage, .629 with the Reds, dropped to .459 with the A's, much more in line with his established level. I think the Angels overpaid.
2. Javier Lopez, C, Orioles. Is there a close correlation between career seasons and walk years? The evidence is contradictory at best, but then you look at a guy like Lopez and you have to wonder. From 24 homers to 17 to 11 to ... 43? Which of these numbers is not like the others?
3. Barry Zito, LHP, A's. Here's what makes me nervous: 8.61, 7.14, 5.67. Those are Zito's strikeouts per nine innings over the past three seasons, pretty much the definition of "steep decline." What's going on? Heck if I know, but it sure raises a red flag.
4. Shannon Stewart, OF, Twins. That bizarre MVP hype aside, what is he exactly? He's a corner outfielder with middling power whose speed is vanishing. The Twins had better options, and so do you.
5. Garret Anderson, OF, Angels. Moving to centerfield is going to aggravate Anderson's bum shoulders, which in turn could affect his power. This makes me nervous. I wouldn't tell you to stay away from him, just downgrade him a bit.
National League
1. Russ Ortiz, RHP, Braves. The NL walks leader isn't going to have the same quality offense rescuing him from his mistakes this season. He's a decent pitcher but in no way an ace.
2. Sammy Sosa, OF, Cubs. If he's one of the top half-dozen outfielders picked, it'll be on reputation and mystique, not performance. All the signs of decline are there: His average and power numbers have dropped two straight years, his walks have fallen off while his strikeout rate has gone up, he's hitting more ground balls than ever. As one-dimensional players go, he's a good one, but he's no longer an MVP candidate.
3. Andy Pettitte, LHP, Astros. I'd love for him to surprise me, but I don't like Pettitte in that ballpark, not when his career ERA is about a run lower at home than on the road. And eventually, that elbow is going to crumble.
4. Preston Wilson, OF, Rockies. A fantasy superstar since moving into Coors, Wilson is going to try to play through a serious knee injury, which even in a best-case scenario will kill his speed and sap his power. At worst, he'll have to have surgery. He's a very risky pick.
5. Ramon Hernandez, C, Padres. Very nice season. Won't happen again.
FIVE MOST DRAFTABLE DEVIL RAYS
1. Carl Crawford, OF. Aubrey Huff is the Rays' best player, but in most fantasy drafts Crawford should top your list. He's one of a very few players nearly guaranteed to steal 50, an increasingly rare and valuable commodity, and he's young enough to improve the rest of his game considerably. He even flashed some power potential this spring.
2. Aubrey Huff, DH. He is their best player. And he should have made the All-Star team. Not that I'm bitter ...
3. Danys Baez, RHP. He's the closer. You need saves.
4. Rocco Baldelli, OF. Baldelli's a fine fantasy player now, but he's most valuable in keeper leagues. If he develops normally, he'll start to peak in 3-4 years. I hope he'll still be a Devil Ray when that happens.
5. Toby Hall, C. AL catching isn't completely barren, but there's a pretty wide gap between the elite and the dregs. Hall falls in the middle and has the youth and hitting potential to move up.
FIVE BEST KEEPER-LEAGUE PICKS
These are the guys who probably won't help you much now but could make you look like a genius in 3-5 years.
1. Joe Mauer, C, Twins. Well, obviously, though there is some skepticism; specifically Joe Sheehan, writing for baseballprospectus.com, noted that catchers 6-4 and taller have an extraordinarily high failure rate. Certainly, Mauer seems to be athletic enough to beat that trend, but just be aware. And don't be disappointed if his rookie numbers fall short of his stature.
2. Rafael Soriano, RHP, Mariners. He's sort of the new, right-handed Johan Santana, a rotation-ready setup man waiting for an injury or flameout. Either is a strong possibility in Seattle, where the ace, Jamie Moyer, is 41 and the No. 3 starter, Freddy Garcia, is one of the game's biggest enigmas. Worst case, Soriano will be a dominant closer.
3. Hee Seop Choi, 1B, Marlins. He's basically starting over, and I'd be surprised if his average rises much above .250 this season. But he has fearsome power potential, and he's a couple years from putting up Mo Vaughn-type numbers.
4. Ryan Wagner, RHP, Reds. He'll set up for the time being, but a good, darting fastball and deadly slider should make him baseball's next great closer.
5. Jason Lane, OF, Astros. Houston is dumb to be sitting him behind Craig Biggio; sentiment shouldn't get in the way of winning. (Oh, I know, he's a "leader." Whatever.) Eventually the silliness will end and Lane will get around to posting annual .500 slugging percentages.
