LAKE BUENA VISTA - Hurricane researcher William Gray predicts 14 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin this year and eight will become hurricanes, three of them major.
Gray also predicted a 71 percent chance that the U.S. coastline will be hit by a major hurricane - a Category 3 storm with winds of 111 mph or above.
The predictions came Friday at the 26th annual National Hurricane Conference.
Gray said Florida is a "sitting duck" poised on the brink of disaster.
"I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky they have been," said Gray, of Colorado State University.
It's become something of an annual ritual. For the past 15-odd years, Gray has said essentially the same thing, at least when it comes to Florida and hurricanes.
"There's trouble on the way," he said. The hurricane season starts June 1.
Gray and his team of hurricane researchers predict 14 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin this year. Of those, eight are predicted to become hurricanes and three will evolve into giant hurricanes of Category 3 or above, Gray said.
He said there is a 71 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline this year.
Gray and his researchers analyze different types of data - from temperatures in ocean waters off Africa to rain patterns to past hurricane seasons - to make their predictions. Florida has been relatively hurricane-free over the past several decades. Hurricane Andrew was the only storm to directly hit peninsular Florida between 1966 and 2003, he said.
However, Florida was struck by two powerful hurricanes in the 1920s. There weren't as many people living here during that decade. If those same hurricanes were to hit now, they would be devastating, especially for South Florida.
"If the law of averages starts working, we're going to see a lot of storms," he said.
During the conference - which held workshops on obscure facts of weather patterns and obtuse formulas for calculating hurricanes - researchers said that regular folks should be prepared for storms, no matter what happens at such conferences.
But meteorologists such as Gray admit that the public may be sick of his dire predictions. Every year, he warns this may be the year that Florida is hit by "The Big One."
He worries that people may have become complacent and aren't paying attention anymore.
"I feel like I've been appointed by Chicken Little," Gray said.
- Tamara Lush can be reached at 727 893-8612 or at lush@sptimes.com
