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By now, you know exactly how this NFL draft is going to work out. I, on the other hand, am an idiot.
You have dissected each and every one of Mel Kiper's 4,871 mock drafts. You have purchased books and drawn charts. You have studied the Internet, and it has been weeks since you have called up Anna Kournikova's picture. I, as you have long suspected, know nothing.
You are a draftnik, which is far superior to your days of being a Trekkie. You know Tommie Harris' 40-yard time and Vince Wilfork's bench press and Philip Rivers' Wunderlich score. I, of course, would settle for being able to spell Kenechi Udeze.
You are aware the Chargers are considering trading down, and the Patriots want to move up. You are willing to debate, at this exact moment, the merits of receiver Roy Williams vs. the merits of receiver Reggie Williams. If the courts allowed it, you'd debate Mike Williams against either. I would bring up D.J. Williams, but you would roll your eyes and sigh. "He's a linebacker."
There is nothing like the draft to make one feel grateful to be the dumbest guy in the room. You are Mel. I am Sam. You know, from the movie, I am Sam.
You know all the pitfalls. You never would have drafted Ryan Leaf or Keith McCants or Akili Smith or Brian Bosworth or Tony Mandarich. And you certainly wouldn't have waited so long to draft Joe Montana or Jerry Rice or Tom Brady or Brad Johnson. You have two mock drafts. One, the way players will be picked. Two, the way they ought to be picked if these general managers of the NFL weren't such knuckleheads.
You know.
Me? I suspect.
Here we are, then, a few days away from a new era in Tampa Bay Bucs drafting. For one thing, they have a new guy calling the shots. For another, they have a No. 1 draft pick. But you knew that.
As for me, here are a few suspicions:
I suspect that whatever differences Jon Gruden and ex-general manager Rich McKay had, it started around draft time. When a coach treats free agency like an all-you-can-eat special, when he signs 21 players, it's a reflection on what he thought of the talent on hand. Of course, Gruden re-signed a lot of that, too.
I suspect Bruce Allen will draft a kid with a troubled past and say, "Let's face it. Herbert Hoover did worse things."
I suspect the Bucs might not be as willing to trade down as a lot of people tend to think. Yes, the Bucs could use depth, and a second-round pick would be welcome. But it has been a decade now since the Bucs drafted a player you can define as great. (You can blame McKay for that, too, if you wish.) If the Bucs have a chance, they should grab it and hope the depth problems were worked out by signing so many free agents.
I suspect the Bucs wouldn't mind a running back. Given Charlie Garner's surgically repaired knee and Michael Pittman's legal problems, a talented young running back could fit perfectly. Put it this way: The Eagles supposedly are trying to move up to No. 16 to draft Oregon's Steven Jackson. If Jackson is worth taking at 16, isn't he worth considering at No. 15.
I suspect the darkhorse candidate to be FSU running back Greg Jones. Yeah, I know some of the mocks don't have him as a first-rounder. Still, before he injured his knee, Jones was a difference-maker.
I suspect the NFL's ruling against underclassmen in the draft might have had a huge impact on the Bucs draft day. There were rumors that a slow time and shoddy routes had Williams slipping in the draft, and he might have been intriguing to the Bucs at No. 15. Then there was Clarett, who was projected to go in the third. He, too, could have been worth consideration.
I suspect the Bucs are serious about a linebacker. But once they sign Dick Butkus as a free agent, that will settle that.
I suspect that if Kellen Winslow Jr. were available, all bets would be off. Heck, Winslow could even tell the Bucs how football is the same thing as war and what a soldier he is, and no one would mind. Just wondering, though: Why don't athletes consider themselves spacemen? Or cowboys? That wouldn't upset anyone.
I suspect that, eventually, some scout will wonder out loud why the league times players in shorts when they play in uniforms. Why not time them in full gear?
I suspect there will be six or seven first-rounders who didn't go to Miami.
I suspect Eli Manning will be a star if the Chargers trade him. If they don't, he'll fall on his nose.
I suspect the Bucs could use a quick, tough scatback type with leadership qualities. Someone who outquicks linebackers and who overpowers safeties. In that case, they might want to check out Martin St. Louis, who tosses a football with Brad Richards before every game.
I suspect a team could acquire Ty Law for a seventh-round draft pick in the year 2525.
I suspect Kurt Warner will end up in Tampa Bay. And, frankly, the Storm could use the help.
I suspect the Cardinals will make a mistake. Call it a hunch.
I suspect that, when you consider Ellis Wyms' recent problems, Gruden won't move the whole draft from One Buc to IHOP.
I suspect that if the Bucs don't find the players they want, they'll sign more free agents. O.J. Simpson is rested and ready.