Iraq

30 desperate days

The month of April takes a grueling toll on the U.S. war in Iraq, with both lives and support lost.

	[AP photo]
	An Iraqi celebrates atop a burning U.S. Army Humvee in Baghdad on Monday. "These are not just a few bands of crazies running around. This is a serious, broad-based insurgency," said Anthony Zinni, retired Marine Corps general and former head of U.S. Central Command.
	[Getty Images]
	Keri Frank stares at the casket holding her husband, Marine Lance Cpl. Phillip Frank, after a graveside service April 17 in Des Plaines, Ill. Frank was killed in combat April 8 in Iraq.

April was a terrible month in Iraq.

U.S. options became more limited and the dangers greater. And as bad as it was, it threatens to get worse.

One year ago President Bush landed in dramatic fashion on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to proclaim the end of major fighting in Iraq.

Today the ravaged country appears close to spinning out of control.

"As a society breaks down, first there is terror, then insurgency, then civil war," said Anthony Zinni, retired Marine Corps general and former head of U.S. Central Command. "Iraq is well into the second stage. These are not just a few bands of crazies running around. This is a serious, broad-based insurgency."

"I think we're on the verge of seeing ... some of the progress we've made over the past year come undone," Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska said recently.

Consider what April brought:

The death toll - of U.S. soldiers and Iraqis alike - continued a relentless climb. Bloody standoffs and sieges were the order of the day, with U.S. aircraft dropping 500-pound bombs on neighborhoods in Fallujah, and lethal AC-130 gunships pounding pockets of resistance. The civilian death toll is unknown.

U.S. soldiers continued to die in firefights and ambushes - eight Thursday when a roadside bomb exploded south of Baghdad. At least 136 U.S. troops were killed in April, the bloodiest month for U.S. forces in Iraq. More than 730 U.S. troops have died in Iraq since the war began in March 2003. Up to 1,360 Iraqis also were killed in April.

Horrifying, controversial images began to drive home the reality of war. The brutal mutilation of four American contractors was the worst; a photo of U.S. dead in flag-draped coffins hit the American public hard, too.

Polls in the United States and in Iraq began to reflect a growing dissatisfaction with the war. There was talk of reinstating the draft, though the Pentagon said it will not be necessary.

The promised handoff of power to a sovereign Iraqi government - scheduled for June 30 - appeared more symbolic than real, and Bush was accused of holding to the timetable to look good for the election in November.

- Since April 8, 58 foreigners, representing 18 nationalities, were taken hostage in Iraq. Of those, one is known to have been killed and 41 have been released. An American soldier, Army Pvt. Matthew Maupin, also was captured. He has not been released.

"We have run into some tough weeks," Secretary of State Colin Powell acknowledged last week.

"We've caused a lot of problems and we've made a lot of mistakes," said Zinni, who served as Powell's Middle East representative. "Being kind, you could say we exaggerated the intelligence on weapons of mass destruction; we had no strategy for postwar Iraq; we were slow to begin to deal with (the powerful moderate Shiite) Ali al-Sistani; and the exiles on the governing council look like U.S. lackeys.

"But we can't leave," Zinni said. "If we bail out now we will just cause more damage. We've got to internationalize this effort and get the economy on its feet."

"We're on a sharp learning curve over there," said Richard Murphy, former assistant secretary of state and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Syria. "It's all on-the-job training now.

"Obviously there is a crisis in Fallujah. ... We put ourselves in a bad spot. We said we will disarm (the insurgents) if they don't give up their weapons. But they haven't done that, so now we are confronted with our own words."

"We are paying for mistakes made in the beginning," said Lawrence Korb, former assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan administration, and now a fellow at the Center for American Progress. The Bush administration "ignored the advice of people like Zinni and (U.S. Army Gen. Eric K.) Shinseki, and now we're paying for it."

In February 2003, Shinseki estimated that several hundred thousand troops might be needed in postwar Iraq - a remark that drew a rebuke from Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz, who said the estimate was "wildly off the mark."

As it turns out, it was Wolfowitz and his team at the Pentagon who were off the mark, Korb said. In trying to do the job "on the cheap," he said, they badly underestimated the number of troops it would take to make Iraq secure when the fighting stopped.

"The June 30 deadline has more to do with our elections than it does with Iraq's, and now the clock is ticking," he said.

"I like to say that the first thing you do when you find yourself in a hole is stop digging," Zinni said. "Look, there is no magic to this. You go to the Chinese, the French, the Russians, and you ask what is it going to take to get some help and support. We have got to have the participation of other nations."

The situation seems to be taking a toll on Bush. A New York Times/CBS News poll found that only 47 percent of Americans now think it was right to have invaded Iraq, down from 58 percent in March and 63 percent in December. Forty-six percent think the United States should have stayed out. Also, the nation split 46-46 percent over whether to stay until stability is achieved or to exit quickly.

A USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll found the Iraqis increasingly resentful of the U.S. presence. The survey, conducted in late March and early April, found that 71 percent of them view U.S. forces as "occupiers," not "liberators."

Judith Kipper, director of the Middle East Forum at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the siege of Fallujah may have hardened Iraqi feelings toward the United States.

Fallujah has been known to resist foreigners "through the ages," she said. "It could become a rallying point for more resistance. The U.S. Marines can't win - conventional forces cannot win against an idea or an insurgency."

Korb suggests the following:

"The administration needs to admit to the American people that it was mistaken about the primary reasons for the war, concede that we are not winning and acknowledge that creating a stable Iraq will be a long, difficult and costly endeavor - it will take at least five years and probably a decade."

The United States needs to increase the number of troops in Iraq to at least 150,000, even though "it will be difficult during an election year."

Postpone the June 30 date for transferring sovereignty to the Iraqis. "The administration still does not have a plan for what will happen on that date, and it would be catastrophic to turn over sovereignty without the security situation under control."

Internationalize this occupation as soon as possible. This is not likely to happen any time soon, he said, "but if we admit to them that we were wrong about the weapons of mass destruction and Saddam's ties to al-Qaida, and if we are willing to cede political and financial control to the United Nations, this can be a long-term solution."

These steps still may not work, Korb said, "but if they are not taken, we will surely fail, and the consequences of that failure will be far worse than Somalia, Lebanon or even Vietnam."

In the last few days, however, a few faint rays of hope penetrated the battlefield smoke.

Under international pressure, the United States stepped back from an all-out confrontation with Iraq's insurgents in Fallujah and allowed an Iraqi security force to begin patrolling the city. Similar negotiations were under way in the southern city of Najaf, where the fiercely anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr was holed up.

Also, the United Nations has expanded its role.

Lakhdar Brahimi is the United Nation's envoy to Iraq. He is a respected nation builder who, with the blessing of the Bush administration, will choose a prime minister and cabinet to replace the U.S.-appointed governing council this summer. Elections would follow early next year.

"We've bet our hats on Brahimi," Zinni said. "We better hope he comes through for us."

Still, some observers are deeply pessimistic.

"We have already failed," retired Lt. Gen. William Odom, a former director of the National Security Agency, said Thursday on NBC's Today show. "Staying in longer makes us fail worse. ... I think we've passed the chances not to fail. And now we are in the situation where we have to limit the damage."

In the Wall Street Journal last week, Odom said any new Iraqi democracy won't look familiar to people in the West. "Anybody that's pro-American cannot gain legitimacy," he said. "It will be a highly illiberal democracy, inspired by Islamic culture, extremely hostile to the West, and probably quite willing to fund terrorist organizations."

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