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MIAMI - By the standards of latter-day Latin American political scandal, it's business as usual: bribery, videotapes of corrupt officials gambling their ill-gotten gains in Las Vegas, a suspect on the lam in Cuba.
Even so, the repercussions of Mexico's so-called video-escandalo may have just begun. The diplomatic fallout in the last few days has stunned Mexicans, as the nation's relationship with Cuba has plunged to an all-time low.
Over the weekend Mexico ordered the expulsion of Cuba's ambassador and downgraded its embassy in Cuba to the level of charge d'affaires, barely a step short of a break in diplomatic relations.
The action came after Mexico accused Cuban officials of meddling in the scandal, which pits the conservative president, Vicente Fox, against the leftist opposition Revolutionary Democratic Party, known by its Spanish abbreviation, PRD. In Mexico's divided political scene, Fox's National Action Party, or PAN, controls the federal government, but the PRD runs the capital, Mexico City.
Mexico City's leftist mayor, Andres Lopez Obrador, is the focus of the video-escandalo. It centers on some of his closest advisers who are alleged to have accepted megabribes and are seen gambling on the videotapes from Vegas.
Lopez Obrador says the affair is part of a sinister campaign to undermine his popularity in advance of presidential elections in 2006. Before the videos appeared he was comfortably leading in the polls. Adding to the rivalry, his main opponent is Fox's wife.
Deepening the plot, Mexico says that two senior members of the Cuban Communist Party recently entered the country on diplomatic passports, supposedly for secret meetings with the mayor's men on how to handle the scandal. Cuba has called the Mexican complaints "totally absurd."
Furthermore, one of those who allegedly paid the bribes, construction magnate turned publisher and soccer club boss Carlos Ahumada, was held in Cuba for a month for questioning by Cuban state security officials. He was let go only last week as Mexico prepared to seek his extradition.
Upon releasing Ahumada, Cuba issued a distinctly undiplomatic note, alleging that the scandal was being manipulated by Fox's right-wing supporters to discredit Lopez Obrador. Cuba based this statement on its interrogation of Ahumada. But after his arrival back in Mexico, Ahumada said Cuban officials forced him to sign a false statement.
Cuba has every reason to help Lopez Obrador. Under Fox, a free-trader and former Coca-Cola executive, Mexico's relations with Cuba have steadily deteriorated.
The two nations used to be firm allies, knotted in a bond of socialist solidarity that stems from their common history of revolution.
In the 1960s, Mexico was the only Latin American country that did not break relations with Cuba after Castro's communist takeover.
For the longest time the formidable Mexico-Cuba axis was a thorn in the side of Washington's foreign policy. In a pact of mutual convenience, Mexico agreed not to follow Washington's dictates, while Havana kept its distance from left-wing Mexican guerrilla movements.
Those days now seem long gone. As Mexico follows the bumpy path of democracy, the old allies seem to have less and less in common.
Last month Mexico even joined four other Latin American nations to condemn Havana's human rights record at a United Nations meeting in Geneva.
In his speech last weekend, Castro accused Fox of betraying Mexico's 1929 revolution.
"It hurts deeply that so much prestige and influence, (that) emerged from a true and profound revolution, have been turned into ashes," he told a crowd of hundreds of thousands assembled in Havana's Revolution Plaza.
Castro's critics suspect he may have miscalculated in his dealings with Mexico because he can't afford to lose friends.
Castro never miscalculates, other analysts respond. One of his favorite strategies to distract attention from his domestic troubles is to play the game of "Us Against the World."
If so, Castro may not be finished picking fights. In an election year in the United States, it would not be surprising if the next fight he picked were with Washington.
- David Adams can be contacted at dadams@sptimes.com