Stuck in low gear

Kerry finds little traction despite bad news assailing the White House.

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Television is filled with images of American soldiers abusing Iraqis. The American death toll in Iraq has spiked. The president now wants another $25-billion for Iraq and Afghanistan, while Alan Greenspan publicly frets over the ballooning deficit. Fuel prices keep rising. New books have White House insiders raising sensational questions about early war planning and attention to the war on terror.

So why isn't Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry trouncing President Bush?

Many Democrats are asking that amid rumblings that Kerry is failing to capitalize on the president's wounds.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll last week underlined the political paradox: Only one-third of Americans said the country is heading in the right direction, but Bush retained a slight lead over Kerry.

Americans, it seems, are growing increasingly dissatisfied with Bush but remain unconvinced that Kerry is a viable alternative.

"He has the same problem Al Gore had. He's not charismatic," said Democratic pollster Dave Beattie. "Voters will always go with the devil they know over the devil they don't."

The four-term Massachusetts senator has another problem: more than $60-million in Bush-Cheney TV ads since March attacking him as a waffling, weak-on-defense tax-raiser. The Annenberg Public Policy Center found that from early March to early May the percent of battleground-state voters who viewed Kerry favorably dropped from 41 percent to 35 percent, while unfavorable views rose from 28 percent to 36 percent.

"When you get that much negative air time cascading on your head, it has an effect," said Democratic consultant Bob Buckhorn of Tampa, noting that Kerry had to concentrate on raising money through much of March and April. "Now is the time Sen. Kerry needs to start defining himself to the American public, and he has the resources to do it."

Certainly the landscape six months before is anything but bleak for Kerry.

He is setting money-raising records and last week launched a $25-million biographical ad blitz in Florida and 19 other states.

Polls essentially portray an even race, with some showing Bush slightly ahead and others Kerry in the lead. By comparison, Bill Clinton at this point in 1992 lagged both former President Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot.

The Kerry camp contends it's a testament to Kerry's strength that he remains effectively tied with Bush after such a heavy load of negative attacks.

But even amid the flood of damaging developments for the president, Kerry has spent much of the past few weeks on the defensive. Many Kerry allies were stunned that a highly decorated Vietnam War veteran could face days of questioning over his 30-year-old war record and whether he threw medals or ribbons over the White House fence as a war protester.

The senator has shown a knack for handing ammunition to critics eager to paint him as an equivocater.

The Bush-Cheney campaign, for instance, seized on Kerry's explanation for voting against $87-billion in supplemental funding for Iraq.

"I actually did vote for the $87-billion before I voted against it," he said.

He meant that he supported the extra money so long as it was tied to rolling back Bush tax cuts. But the words - reminiscent of Bill Clinton's "It depends on what the definition of "is' is" line - wound up in Bush-Cheney TV ads across the country.

On Earth Day a reporter asked Kerry, who supports higher fuel efficiency standards, whether he owns a gas-guzzling SUV. First he said no, then yes, then said it belonged to his wife.

"The family has it. I don't have it," he said, providing another line for Republicans to hammer for obfuscation.

"Now, there's a fellow who's getting a lot of mileage out of his Suburban," President Bush quipped while campaigning in Michigan Tuesday.

Kerry has inflicted wounds on his basic image even faster than potentially damaging events have hit Bush, said David Winston, a Republican pollster.

"This is a critical point for Kerry," Winston said. "That's why you saw this huge fanfare for their positive ads. They know they're in trouble."

The period between the primaries and the national nominating convention is a tricky time in a campaign. It's when early and often lasting impressions are formed. Contrary to expectations, Kerry has raised enough money to fight hard during the period. How effectively he'll do it remains uncertain.

Bill Clinton likened presidential campaigning to a job interview. A candidate needs to convince Americans to hire him and fire the incumbent.

With some recent polls showing the president's approval rating dipping ominously below 50 percent, the firing part at this point looks easier for Kerry to sell than the hiring part.

"It's a referendum on Bush, but it's not a referendum in a vacuum," said Beattie, the Democratic pollster. "Voters are looking for someone else, but Kerry hasn't closed the deal. He still has to prove himself."

- Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com

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