Exit polls show split Indian vote

NEW DELHI - With the conclusion Monday of India's election, exit polls showed Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's coalition nowhere near the majority it needs to control Parliament and lead the nation for five more years.

The massive ballot took three weeks to conduct and could also decide the future of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, with opposition leader Sonia Gandhi's Congress party making solid gains and her son, Rahul, entering politics for the first time.

Polling officials traveled by yak to reach snowbound voters in the Himalayas, while others fainted from scorching heat in India's east.

About 55 percent of the 215-million registered voters in 16 states voted Monday, with more than 368-million people participating in the five phases that began April 20, the Election Commission said. Final results are expected Thursday, from electronic voting machines used across India for the first time.

A leading exit poll, conducted by A.C. Nielsen, indicated several hours after the polls closed that no party or alliance has a clear majority.

The New Delhi Television-Indian Express poll said that with all the votes now cast in the five-phased elections, Vajpayee's Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and his 11-member National Democratic Alliance looked likely to win 230-250 seats in Parliament.

That puts the NDA far short of the 272 seats needed for a majority of the 543 elected seats in the lower house, called the Lok Sabha.

The Congress party and its allies were projected to win 190-205 seats. The country's leftist parties, which have vowed to support Congress, appear ready to gain 40-50 seats. Another 60-70 seats stand to go to smaller parties or independents, according to the poll.

"Both fronts are looking at 30 seats each to cross the 272 mark. This is when the smaller parties will emerge as the kingmakers," said Rajdeep Sardesai, a political analyst on NDTV. He said the unexpectedly poor showing by the NDA was due to "a certain sense of arrogance of power."

It appears that Gandhi and Vajpayee will be forced into horse-trading for enough support to form a governing coalition. This could raise the risk of an unstable government, which may not last the full five-year term or be able to implement its policies.

Sixteen states held balloting Monday for 182 seats in Parliament.

Election-related violence claimed four lives in West Bengal and Punjab states before the final phase of voting ended Monday.

An estimated four dozen people have been killed in election violence since April 19, the eve of the first round of voting - much lower than the 100 deaths in the 1999 elections.

Militants fired at a polling station and hurled a grenade at another in the disputed state of Jammu-Kashmir, where militants threatened to kill anyone participating in elections. Voters who lined up to vote in the district of Doda said they would not be frightened out of casting ballots.

"I have been voting since I was 21. I'm not scared of any militant threat and, God willing, I will keep voting while I live," said Rashida Begum, 43.

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