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BILL VARIANCredit or blame term limits or districts safely drawn for the lack of House and Senate candidates.
TAMPA - State Reps. Arthenia Joyner, a Tampa Democrat, and Don Sullivan, a St. Petersburg Republican, have something in common beyond representing portions of the Tampa Bay area.
Both voted to keep the controversial phone rate increase, but neither has attracted an opponent so far as they seek re-election.
"I don't think people elect you on one issue," Joyner said. "I think they look at your cumulative record and see whether you stood up on issues that are important to them, like education, health care and affordable housing."
They are hardly alone in being alone.
With the legislative session concluded, serious campaigning for state races has started. But with six months to go before November's elections, nearly half - 59 of 120 - of the races for state House seats are uncontested.
It's the same in the Senate, where exactly half of the 20 seats up for grabs have only the incumbent as a choice for voters.
If no one steps forward and challenges them, they will be effectively re-elected as soon as qualifying closes in July, winning by default without having to bother with a single debate, speech, poster or rally.
"It certainly defies the notion of open competition in democratic elections," said Darryl Paulson, a professor of government at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg.
Much of the blame goes to re-apportionment, the process of redrawing political district lines with every census to reflect shifts in population. Technology increasingly has allowed legislators to carve their districts into safe seats, laden with party faithful.
With strong holds on both chambers, Republicans also hold a commanding edge in money raising.
And term limits may have prompted some potential candidates to bide their time, knowing that eventually the incumbent will be forced out.
Throw in a Florida Democratic Party that has foundered over the past decade, and you have a recipe for monopoly.
Consider:
Fewer than 25 percent of the House races have opponents from both major parties so far.
Democrats have mustered candidates in fewer than half of the 120 races in the House, supplying candidates in only 59 races. So far, Republicans are not mounting a challenge in 30 districts, many of them in Democrat-heavy South Florida.
In the Senate, no race has attracted more than two candidates. Only six of the 20 Senate seats up for election are being contested by the two parties. Democratic Sen. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston is running for Congress, leaving an open seat there.
If there's an upside for proponents of competition, term limits are producing more open seats when someone is forced out, particularly in the House, where the voter mandate is starting to cause turnover. Candidates appear to be flocking to those races, two of which are in Hillsborough, including the contests to replace outgoing Speaker Johnnie Byrd, R-Plant City, and Sandra Murman, R-Tampa.
"If somebody wants to run for a seat, oftentimes they can just wait," said Jon Mills, dean emeritus at the Center for Governmental Responsibility at the University of Florida and the Democratic House speaker from 1986-88.
Both open Hillsborough races have attracted five candidates so far, though all are Republicans in the District 56 seat held by Byrd. Local Democratic Party officials say they are about to add a candidate in the race.
In Pasco County, two Republicans and one Democrat are seeking the seat being vacated by Heather Fiorentino, R-New Port Richey, who is leaving to run for superintendent of schools.
At least 16 House seats statewide are expected to be open by the time candidates must officially declare their intentions to run in July. Even in races where there are contests, the incumbents hold significant advantages.
Statewide, Republicans are expected to have up to $9-million to spend on House races, many times what Democrats will have to spend.
Geoffrey Becker, executive director for the Republican Party of Florida, said more than money helped his party take control of the Legislature in 1996, despite district lines drawn to limit their success.
"The fact is that they have chosen, since becoming a minority party in the Legislature, to not go after competitive races," Becker said. "They have chosen to spend their money protecting their incumbents."
Scott Maddox, chairman of the Florida Democratic Party, acknowledged his party has lagged in planning for the future, while underscoring that it will focus limited dollars on a handful of competitive seats. He said he has made it a goal to have the state party get more involved in local races to develop a pool of prospective candidates for the future.
"I'm trying hard to build that bench and get interest started early," he said. "It's going to be a long process."
- Staff writer Steve Bousquet contributed to this story.