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If Lion Heart and jockey Mike Smith are to beat Smarty Jones and Stewart Elliott, this is the best opportunity they will get.
The Kentucky Derby runnerup claimed the rail in the Preakness post position draw, putting him where he needs to be to exploit his front-running style. Pimlico's inside lane is traditionally compact and fast; that should give him the footing to go quickly to the front. Catching him could be difficult. Pimlico's supposedly tight corners - many jockeys think the narrow track makes this an optical illusion - should not be a problem.
Smarty Jones, attempting to win for the eighth time without a loss, has the speed to stay close to Lion Heart and showed great ability in the Kentucky Derby to rate just off the leaders. Keeping up with what should be a brisk pace will be difficult, though he will only have to come from the seventh post in a 10-horse field.
Eddington, third in the Wood Memorial and Gotham, was training very well up to the Derby but failed to make the field because he lacked enough graded-stakes earnings. Rock Hard Ten, who finished second but was disqualified to third in the Santa Anita Derby, did not run in the Derby either. Both are interesting mysteries, but may be too rested (Rock Hard Ten has three races this year) or too outclassed at this point.
Smarty Jones' talent on mud helped him overtake Lion Heart in the Derby, but a dry day is forecast for Baltimore. The track, however, will come into play in another way. Smarty Jones and Imperialism (with jockey Kent Desormeaux) will need to make a move quicker than at Churchill Downs, as the Preakness is run over 1 3/16th miles, half a furlong shorter than the Derby. Imperialism, third in the Derby and the best closer in the field, will have less room to rally and Smarty Jones cannot fall as far behind - he was fourth by almost 4 lengths after a half-mile in the Derby - if he is to capture the second leg of the Triple Crown.
History supports Smarty Jones, as Louis Quatorze (1996) was the last to win the Preakness wire to wire, but Lion Heart will be tough to catch.
PREDICTION: Win - Lion Heart; Place - Smarty Jones; Show - Imperialism.