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Already tired of political ads on TV? You might want to leave Florida in August.
Added to the existing barrage of presidential campaign spots by late summer will be commercials for a slew of well-funded Senate candidates. As of last month, seven Democrats and Republicans vying to replace Sen. Bob Graham had at least $1-million on hand each to introduce themselves to a state far too big to win without TV.
Come August, with so many different ads airing at a time most Americans will be focused on the Olympics or Iraq or Bush vs. Kerry, God knows how Florida voters are supposed to make sense of the race.
Factor in the lack of a runoff election after the Aug. 31 primary, and it's shaping up as one of the most volatile and unpredictable Senate contests in modern Florida history. That's especially true with the Republican primary, where eight candidates have qualified, including a couple who have signalled their willingness to spend millions of their own money.
Fourteen weeks before the primary, it's time for a quick primer on the GOP Senate field.
We can divide the race into three tiers. The top two contenders are former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum of Longwood and former U.S. Housing Secretary Mel Martinez of Orlando. Plenty of strategists see this as nothing more than a McCollum vs. Martinez race featuring some added noise from several also-rans.
The second tier includes state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd of Plant City, Coral Gables businessman Doug Gallagher, Larry Klayman, a conservative activist from Miami, and Karen Saull, a little known millionaire from Vero Beach.
I'm keeping my eye on Gallagher - a political newcomer with the polish of a veteran who also has top-notch campaign staffers and a deep bank account - as the wild card with potential to surprise people.
The final, longshot tier includes William Billy Kogut, an Ormond Beach real estate agent who has no visible campaign, and Sonya March, a St. Petersburg lawyer, disabled Air Force veteran and first-time candidate who is campaigning across the state.
"With the power of God behind me, I believe I will win," March, 40, said at a Fort Myers forum last week. The candidates differ little on issues, mostly standing firmly behind President Bush's agenda and performance despite Bush's falling approval ratings. The contest is more about style, message and resumes. Here's a concise guide to the main contenders in the field:
Mel Martinez: He has a great story to tell, and he tells it constantly. He came to America in 1962 at age 15 as part of a Catholic Church program to help children leave communist Cuba. Speaking no English, he lived in foster homes until he was reunited with his parents four years later in Orlando. He wound up becoming a successful trial lawyer and in 1998 was elected as Orange County's chief administrator.
"The embodiment of the "American Dream,' " President Bush said of Martinez, whom he appointed secretary of Housing and Urban Development in 2001.
That's the other central message of the Martinez campaign: he's the White House choice. Though officially neutral, the White House is widely known to have recruited Martinez for the job and is eager to have a Republican Hispanic on the ballot to help win over Florida's coveted Latino voters.
With widespread party establishment backing, Martinez, 57, has proved a fundraising force despite a late entry in the race. But he's little known through most of the state and in a low-turnout primary, where the nomination can be won with 30 percent of the vote, it's uncertain how important establishment backing really is. What's more, some influential interest groups, especially doctors, strongly oppose any trial lawyer who might be skeptical about restricting lawsuits.
"I don't think people at the grass roots level look at who is the White House candidate," said state Sen. Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, who is backing McCollum.
Bill McCollum: The front-runner, McCollum benefits from the strongest name recognition having run for the Senate in 2000 against Bill Nelson. The longtime former congressman from central Florida, McCollum in this post-9/11 campaign also benefits from a resume loaded with intelligence and counterterrorism experience.
But despite strong conservative credentials, including serving as one of Bill Clinton's impeachment managers, McCollum is dogged by a McCollum-can't-win perception. In 2000, party leaders pushed then-Education Commissioner Tom Gallagher out of McCollum's way for the GOP nomination, and many Republicans today are convinced Gallagher would have beaten Nelson and McCollum is a weak statewide candidate.
Doug Gallagher: A lot of people chuckled dismissively when Tom Gallagher's little known brother jumped into the race in February. But Gallagher quickly and quietly proved his credibility. He put $1.2-million of his own money into the campaign and hinted he was prepared to spend plenty more. He signed up one of President Bush's media consultants, Fred Davis, and Jeb Bush's pollster, Neil Newhouse.
A onetime Catholic seminary student, Gallagher founded a high tech company serving the mortgage industry and become a millionaire. He also raised millions for diabetes research. His basic campaign message: time for a nonpolitician with fresh ideas and energy.
"This is not about the White House selecting who's going to be the next United States senator in Florida. This is also not about someone who ran before and lost," said Gallagher, hoping a virtually unknown rookie can become the alternative to Martinez and McCollum.
Johnnie Byrd: On the campaign trail the state House speaker tells crowds his mission has never been to endear himself to the media. If so, he has succeeded famously. Few speakers have received as much negative publicity.
He can legitimately campaign on his record of fighting for tax cuts, helping the health care industry and thwarting gay marriage in Florida. But as speaker, his style came off as autocratic and shamelessly aimed at promoted his candidacy. He managed to antagonize more people in Tallahassee, including many Republican lobbyists, than any leader in recent memory.
Once the session ended, conventional wisdom has it, Byrd's influence and ability to raise campaign money dried up.
Karen Saull: How seriously can you take someone whose handlers have not let her utter a word publicly? When she has the ability and apparent willingness to pump millions of dollars into the campaign, you sure can't dismiss her outright.
Mrs. Saull, whose husband, Jeff, made millions selling candles and office chairs, lives in Vero Beach and is said to be a longtime philanthropist and passionate animal lover. She has yet to speak to a reporter, however. Her husband is also bankrolling a petition to double the homestead property tax exemption.
Larry Klayman: The founder of Judicial Watch is well known inside the Washington beltway for filing countless lawsuits against the Clintons (and later against Dick Cheney), but he is little known in Florida and probably barely qualifies for the middle tier of candidates in this race.
At campaign forums he's usually the only candidate saying anything particularly different (he offers no defense for deficit spending under a Republican president and Congress, he opposes federal education mandates, opposes caps on lawsuit damages and advocates psychological testing of judges). His main message, it sometimes seems, is that he's the candidate to make life miserable for Hillary Rodham Clinton "and her comrades."
Despite raising more than $1.6-million, Klayman managed to finish March with just $76,000 on hand.
Polls suggest barely 5 percent of Florida voters are undecided between Bush and Kerry, while at least one in three are uncertain about their Senate preferences. In other words, it's wide open.
- Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com