Venezuela's leader relents on recall under pressure

It wasn't until former President Jimmy Carter intervened that Hugo Chavez accepted petitions for a vote.

MIAMI - After a bitter, yearlong political wrangle, Venezuela finally appears headed for a recall referendum that could oust the country's controversial president, Hugo Chavez.

After resisting the referendum with every kind of political maneuvering he could muster, Chavez conceded late Thursday that his opponents had gathered enough signatures to force the recall vote.

"Let's accept that," he said.

But Chavez, a wily former paratroop commander and self-styled leftist revolutionary, appeared confident. He suggested the referendum was a temporary setback, hinting he had other tricks up his sleeve.

"I haven't started playing. The game starts now," he said.

While such words may seem not to bode well, analysts say Chavez deserves some credit for sticking to the path of democratic legitimacy. Some of his more radical supporters would have preferred otherwise. They took to the streets of the capital Thursday, burning cars and shooting up opposition buildings.

"Chavez has chosen to play the game of politics within the rules of the system," said Robert Pastor, a director of the Center for Democracy and Election Management at American University in Washington. "The issue was whether he would follow them or break them."

For the past year, the referendum issue has been a tug of war that has dangerously deepened political and social divisions in Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest petroleum exporter.

Since he was first elected in 1998, Chavez has torn apart Venezuelan politics and society with his fiery language of class warfare coupled with efforts to ram through radical left-wing economic reforms. He is strongly supported by militant left-wing groups - some armed - as well as the country's ranks of poor and unemployed, who blame the political elite for decades of corruption and misuse of the nation's oil wealth.

Venezuela's political crisis has already resulted in one brief coup attempt, which succeeded in removing Chavez from power for 48 hours; violent street protests; and a economically debilitating strike by the state-owned oil company, Petroleum of Venezuela.

For more than 18 months, international mediators led by former President Jimmy Carter have tried to broker a political solution. Carter, a veteran election observer, was praised this week for stepping in at a crucial moment.

After two previous opposition petitions calling for a referendum were thrown out, the legitimacy of a third signature drive held late last year was being questioned by Chavez supporters claiming fraud.

In each case the petitions appeared to have raised far more signatures than required by the Venezuelan constitution. In the last case, about 1.5-million signatures were rejected by the Electoral Council.

Over the weekend, a final "signature repair" process was convened in which 1.2-million voters whose ballots had been provisionally questioned were given a second chance to confirm their voting intention.

Chavez government officials mounted a fierce campaign to pressure voters against turning out. Referendum voter records were made public, allowing Chavez supporters to identify government workers who signed up for the recall and threaten them with losing their jobs.

Chavez also turned up his anti-U.S. rhetoric in recent weeks, accusing Washington of plotting to hire Colombian mercenaries to assassinate him.

The Chavez camp hoped this would be enough to dissuade voters, Venezuelan political analyst Alberto Garrido said. "They thought fewer people would turn out. It was a miscalculation."

Unofficial vote tallies Sunday night showed the opposition had exceeded the amount required to trigger the referendum by more than 130,000 votes. But by late Monday election authorities had still not announced the results.

Government supporters began to circulate new rumors of opposition fraud. That is when Carter stepped in. Monday night he marched into the vote counting room at National Election Council offices, wanting to know why votes were not being processed.

"It was a master stroke," Garrido said. "He took everyone by surprise. It was very bold."

Chavez supporters erupted in a chorus of anti-imperialist hysteria over Carter's alleged intervention in Venezuela's sovereign affairs. But Carter appeared to have read the situation well. Would Chavez dare defy the internationally proclaimed champion of democracy and human rights?

Chavez balked. Instead of blasting Carter, he invited him to dinner. The next day Chavez began sounding more conciliatory about allowing the referendum to proceed.

"There's no doubt that Carter's continued engagement with Chavez has had an influence on him," said Pastor, who directed Latin America policy for the Carter White House.

Carter, together with Cesar Gaviria, the head of the Organization of American States, deserves "enormous credit for watching the process and keeping the actors within the guidelines of the system," Pastor added.

"In the absence of their persistence and skilled diplomacy, I believe Venezuela would be on a downward spiral of violence right now."

Chavez may also have been restrained by a strong "institutionalist" movement within the military, say analysts, which prodded him along a constitutional path and let the referendum go forward.

The Venezuelan crisis remains far from settled.

Political tensions remain high as the nation's Electoral Council has yet to announce a date for the recall vote. In order to force new elections, the referendum must take place before Aug. 19 - the midpoint in Chavez's six-year term. Otherwise the current vice president and close ally of the president, Jose Vicente Rangel, would take over.

It also remains to be seen if Chavez's more revolutionary supporters will accept the referendum peacefully.

For the time being, Chavez says he is looking forward to the referendum and what he calls "the decisive battle."

In a nod to the "revolution," he has not altogether abandoned his anti-imperialist speech, either. Thursday night he lashed out at President Bush, accusing him of being "the true instigator" behind the efforts to oust him.

But for now, he added, a referendum was better than a coup.

- Times correspondent Phil Gunson contributed to this report from Caracas.

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