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For nearly 80 years, the Tampa Bay area has ducked and dodged direct hits from heavyweight hurricanes. The entire state escaped catastrophe several times during the last few years, as storms changed course and inflicted destruction on our neighbors to the north. But don't let this meteorological peace lull you into a false sense of security. Hurricanes tear into the Southeast coast every year, and Tampa Bay should brace for the worst.
The 2004 hurricane season began June 1, and weather experts call for as many as eight hurricanes before Nov. 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that three hurricanes could be Category 3 or stronger. Three hurricanes swept into the U.S. coastal waters last year, and some North Carolina residents still are living in government-provided housing after Hurricane Isabel destroyed their homes.
Five years ago, Floridians flooded highways in last-minute attempts to flee the oncoming wrath of Hurricane Floyd. Motorway traffic clotted throughout the state. Thousands of residents weathered the storm in their vehicles on highway shoulders, but the brunt of the storm swung north and pounded North Carolina with its 104 mile-per-hour winds. Earlier evacuation could have eased traffic flow.
Again last year, a hurricane barreled through the barrier islands of North Carolina, leaving severed power lines, razed crops and fallen trees in its wake. As of the end of April, the Federal Emergency Management Agency had spent $538-million in efforts to clean up after Isabel.
Tampa Bay should not become complacent just because it hasn't taken a direct hit in recent years. "You haven't had a big hit in a while, and people just don't have a clue," said Stan Goldenberg, a meteorologist with NOAA who helped compile the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook. "If Tampa-St. Petersburg gets hit by a Category 2, there's going to be a significant amount of flooding and damage."
All but two of the last nine years have produced an above-average number of hurricanes, and this year is expected to continue the trend. But preparation is essential even during slow years. "There was only one hurricane (in 1992)," Goldenberg said. "It just happened to be called Andrew."
With hurricane season upon us, we should stock survival kits early with provisions such as bottled water, extra batteries, flashlights, nonperishable foods and supplies for babies and relatives with special health needs. We also should make plans for boarding pets and evacuating to safer shelter.
Tampa Bay residents also must worry about storm surge from rivers and waterways. Most of the 57 deaths attributed to Floyd resulted from freshwater drowning, according to a National Hurricane Center report.
Goldenberg also urged people to have their home insurance policies updated to account for increases in property value. If residents fail to update their policies, they could return to a devastated home only to find it insured for tens of thousands less than its actual 2004 value.