A rougher-than-normal season produced three major hurricanes, but the advent of five-day forecasts proved helpful.
By Times Staff Writer
Published June 6, 2004
[Times photo]
A storm surge dragged St. Petersburg Times photographer Douglas R. Clifford’s Buick SUV off North Carolina’s State Highway 12 on Sept. 25, 2003. The vehicle was trapped in sand and high water as Hurricane Isabel made landfall near Rodanthe, N.C.
Isabel was the headliner, but hardly the only 2003 storm that made news in what was a well above-average Atlantic hurricane season. Sixteen tropical storms formed and seven became hurricanes. Three of those storms - Fabian, Isabel and Kate - were major hurricanes.
A typical season has 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes. Forecasters say the period from 1995-2003 represents the most active on record for Atlantic hurricanes. Seven of those seasons were above normal, and "we are concerned that this increased activity will continue in the coming years," said Jim Laver, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
Forecasting changed in 2003 with the introduction of five-day forecasts. Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, said "in the case of powerful Hurricane Isabel, these longer-range forecasts were useful for planning purposes all along the East Coast."
Three-day forecasts improved significantly, said Naomi Surgi, advanced project leader for hurricanes for NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center. "These model forecasts made during the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season were the most accurate three-day track forecasts ever. Hurricane Isabel's model forecasts were the most accurate in terms of track and wave generation."
Here's a summary of each 2003 storm. Information was provided by NOAA:
1. Ana: The first tropical storm on record in April, Ana formed off Bermuda on April 20. It traveled north, then northwest before turning to the south and eventually the east. Its winds reached 60 mph and its waves were blamed for two deaths when a boat capsized at Jupiter Inlet, Florida.
2. Bill: This tropical storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 29 and hit Louisiana a day later with 60-mph winds. It produced five tornadoes and coastal flooding and killed four in the southeastern United States.
3. Claudette: A tropical wave July 8 turned into a hurricane and hit the Texas-Mexico border with 90-mph winds July 15. One person was killed.
4. Danny: This wave formed July 16 in the Atlantic and became a hurricane July 18 but never threatened land.
5. Erika: Erika formed Aug. 14 off southwest Florida and moved west, hitting 45 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, in Mexico, on Aug. 16. Two people died. At first considered a tropical storm, Erika was reclassified after a post-storm review showed it was a hurricane with 75-mph winds at landfall.
6. Fabian: Formed Aug. 27 and became a hurricane Aug. 29. Fabian peaked as a category 4 storm with 145-mph winds and hit Bermuda with 115-mph winds Sept. 5, causing four deaths. As it moved north it also claimed the lives of a swimmer in North Carolina and three fishermen off Newfoundland.
7. Grace: Formed Aug. 30 in the west-central Gulf, Grace became a weak tropical storm and hit near Galveston on Aug. 31, dumping 8 inches of rain over the area.
8. Henri: This storm was the closest call in 2003 for the bay area. Henri formed Sept. 3, peaked with 60-mph winds Sept. 5 and then weakened before coming ashore near Clearwater on Sept. 6 with 30-mph winds. Henri dumped 10 inches of rain over portions of west-central Florida.
9. Isabel: A classic Cape Verde hurricane, Isabel formed Sept. 6 and was a category 5 hurricane with 165-mph winds by Sept. 11. It remained a category 5 through Sept. 15, then weakened somewhat as it turned north-northwest. On Sept. 18, Isabel hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 105 mph. Storm surge flooding was 10 feet in North Carolina and 6 to 8 feet along the East Coast to New York. High waters in the Chesapeake Bay and mid-Atlantic rivers were accompanied by rainfall of up to 11 inches. Sixteen deaths were attributed to Isabel, 10 of them in Virginia.
10. Juan: On Sept. 25, Juan formed 300 miles southeast of Bermuda. It was a hurricane by Sept. 26 and made landfall in Nova Scotia on Sept. 29 as a category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds. Juan caused two deaths and has been called the most destructive hurricane in Halifax's history.
11. Kate: Kate formed Sept. 25 and became a hurricane four days later, eventually hitting 125-mph winds. Its path was easily the most bizarre of the year. It started going northwest, switched to the northeast, turned to the west and then south and west again for several days before turning north. It never threatened the United States.
12. Larry: Formed in the Bay of Campeche, Larry became a tropical storm Oct. 1. It went west, then south, hitting the state of Tabasco in Mexico with 60-mph winds Oct. 5. Five flooding deaths were attributed to Larry.
13. Mindy: This storm formed off the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic on Oct. 10 and briefly became a tropical storm. By Oct. 14, it had weakened to a depression. It produced heavy rains over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
14. Nicholas: Never a threat to land, this storm formed Oct. 13 and peaked with 70-mph winds four days later before degenerating Oct. 23.
15. Odette: Odette formed Dec. 4 in the southwestern Caribbean, became a tropical storm and slammed into the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic on Dec. 6 with 60-mph winds. It dumped huge amounts of rain, leading to eight flood-related deaths in the Dominican. Odette merged with a front Dec. 7 and disappeared.
16. Peter: Peter formed in the far eastern Atlantic Dec. 7 and reached its peak of 70-mph winds two days later. The storm moved south initially, then turned around and went north and was eventually absorbed by a cold front.
[Last modified June 4, 2004, 12:54:33]
Related stories
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
