Bush key: Succeed where his dad failed

Indicators say the economy is improving, but many voters aren't getting the message. That's much like what happened to the president's father.

"American elections are decided on the economy. And my problem was the economy was good but I couldn't get people to understand that." - Former President George Bush, May 2004

For a president who has worked doggedly to avoid the mistakes and one-term fate of his father, George W. Bush finds himself in an ominously similar position to his dad 12 years ago.

Back in the spring of 1992, many economic indicators suggested America's recession had ended and the economy was coming around. Voters, though, didn't buy it and handed the White House to Bill Clinton. Today, a host of rosy economic statistics are doing little to dim public pessimism or raise President Bush's popularity.

"It just hasn't penetrated yet because of the mix of other stories," Republican pollster David Winston said of the positive economic indicators. "Until about a week ago this administration went through about the worst six-week period of news that I've ever seen a sitting president go through. Good news was just not getting out there."

Now the Bush-Cheney campaign is launching a new offensive aimed at touting the growing economy. A new TV ad airing in Florida and other battleground states hails the positive statistics, and a small army of administration officials is aggressively spreading the upbeat message.

They have plenty to talk about: 1.4-million jobs created over the past nine months; unemployment falling; wages, business investment and consumer spending rising. In the past four quarters, the economy has expanded at its fastest pace in two decades. Unemployment has dropped in 11 of the 17 most contested states.

"From Wall Street to Washington to my home state of Wyoming, we are seeing the signs of healthy, vigorous growth, and that's an achievement in which we can all take pride," Vice President Dick Cheney said last week.

Although a growing number of Americans believe that, even more remain skeptics.

"I just want somebody who's going to get the message and bring the economy back," Richard Cain, a Republican, said, as he filled his Mercedes with $1.99-a-gallon gas in Tampa. "It's not complicated. You need to stop letting all these companies move (overseas) and give tax incentives for them to bring the jobs back to this country."

Three years ago, Cain, a used car dealer, sold about 40 vehicles a month while today he said he's lucky if he sells 12. He's voting for Democrat John Kerry.

The disconnect between economic statistics and perceptions is widespread. It's also a crucial issue in this neck-and-neck presidential battle, in which most voters say the economy is a top priority.

A June 3-6 Gallup poll found only 41 percent of registered voters approved the president's handling of the economy. An Investors Business Daily poll released last week found consumer confidence falling, even as the economy added 248,000 more jobs in May. An Associated Press poll last week found 57 percent of voters wrongly believed the country had lost jobs over the past six months.

Public confidence does appear to be inching up. About 47 percent of respondents in the AP poll said they approve of the president's performance on the economy, up from 43 percent last month.

Public perception of an improving economy usually lags behind upbeat indicators, and Republican strategists contend public confidence will grow as the election nears. And the economic climate facing the 43rd president is much brighter than his father faced.

Consider that just before former President Bush arrived at the 1992 Republican national convention, the number of Americans filing for unemployment jumped to its highest level in 10 years. Unemployment nationally stands at 5.6 percent, compared with 7.5 percent in May 1992. Florida's unemployment rate is 4.6 percent, compared with 7.2 percent in 1992.

After several months of job growth, Kerry no longer repeatedly calls Bush the first president since Herbert Hoover who will preside over a net job loss, though that may still prove true.

"This is much more like Clinton's approval on the economy than it is his father's," said Bush-Cheney senior adviser Matthew Dowd. He noted that former President Bush at this point in 1992 had approval ratings on the economy around 15 percent, while the current president's are only about six points lower than President Clinton's in 1996.

Still, until the situation in Iraq improves, strategists question whether perceptions about the economy will improve.

Most voters feel optimistic about their own financial condition, Dowd said, but the good economic news has been unable to cut through the attention on Iraq. He expects that to change soon.

How soon remains the critical political question.

"This is not a new phenomenon," Carroll Doherty, editor of the Pew Research Center, said of the disconnect between public views and objective statistics. "We saw it in the Clinton administration . . . where it took years before a steady stream of positive economic news changed impressions of how the economy was doing."

Iraq is not Bush's only obstacle to reversing grim perceptions about the economy. For all the upbeat statistics about payroll and gross domestic product, Bush still faces an electorate squeezed by soaring gas prices, rising health care costs and other factors. Now Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is talking about raising interest rates faster than expected to keep inflation in check.

"People don't feel it in their wallet, and people have to feel it in their wallet before they feel optimistic," Democratic strategist Donna Brazile said. "A lot of anxiety still exists and people's confidence is still shaken on this administration's ability to solve problems."

Stass Andrews of St. Petersburg had little trouble recently finding a job as a machine operator in Largo. But he's fed up with Bush and the state of the economy.

"You can find jobs, but there's no opportunity for advancement," said Andrews, an independent voter. "I'm just trying to stay afloat. To me, it all comes down to a lack of leadership."

Charlie Black, a veteran Republican strategist, said George W. is far better positioned than his father was to convince voters that the gloom is behind them.

"Look, if they don't understand that by October, that's our fault. The facts are there and it's our job to convince them," Black said.

- Adam C. Smith can be reached at adam@sptimes.com or 727 893-8241.

World and national headlines

© 2006 • All Rights Reserved • St. Petersburg Times 490 First Avenue South • St. Petersburg, FL 33701 • 727-893-8111 Contact the Times | Privacy Policy Standard of Accuracy | Terms, Conditions & Copyright