News

Election 2004

Primary stretch could be nasty

Betty Castor's lead in the race for Senate could depend on whether her Democratic rivals attack each other.

By ANITA KUMAR
Published July 5, 2004

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So far, it's not the candidates driving the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate.

A national abortion rights group is sending hundreds of thousands of dollars to Florida. An independent group is lodging frequent attacks. Former Vice President Al Gore is weighing in.

Retiring Sen. Bob Graham is playing mediator.

But as they head into the final eight weeks of campaigning, the three major Democratic candidates say it's time to take back the debate and spread their own messages.

"All that other stuff is just politics," Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas said. "I hope that people will start paying attention to who we are and what we stand for."

Candidates are starting the sprint to the Aug. 31 primary with patriotic pushes this long holiday weekend as they try to sway swing voters, hone their messages and attract media coverage.

Soon after, voters will begin to see a steady stream of television ads. And once the ads start, they aren't likely to stop.

"In July and August, they have to talk to voters, and it's going to cost money," said Rob Schroth, a Democratic pollster with offices in Washington and Miami. "They need to hit voters over the head for weeks."

Florida's open seat is being eyed by the national political parties, and the election will help determine whether Republicans maintain control of the Senate.

The most recent polls show Betty Castor, former state education commissioner and University of South Florida president, leading U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Hollywood and Penelas. But they also indicate at least a quarter of all Democratic voters are undecided.

Adam Goodman, a Tampa campaign consultant, said Castor polled higher initially because she had name recognition as the only candidate for the seat to hold statewide office.

"I don't think she's a frontrunner anymore," said Goodman, who is not involved in the Senate race. "Both primaries are wide open."

Castor, of Tampa, planned to spend much of the weekend in North Florida, sampling barbecue with farmers in Live Oak, chatting with black leaders in Quincy and attending a parade with veterans in Lynn Haven.

She said she will focus on three core issues - national security, health care and the economy - and continue to stay out of the fights between Deutsch and Penelas.

"I think this is a race that can be won on issues and taking the high road," she said. "That's what people want."

Republican strategist Richard Pinsky, who is advising GOP Senate candidate Doug Gallagher, predicted Democratic voters will move in Castor's direction because they see her as the most electable of the three.

"In the Democratic primary, people are beginning to break toward Castor because of the general election," Pinsky said. "It's the feeling that "we really need to win the seat and we need to go with someone who can win in November.' "

But whether Castor will be able to keep her lead could depend largely on how much Deutsch and Penelas continue to attack each other, or whether they turn on her instead.

Most of the attention garnered by the Democratic primary has been due to headline-grabbing negative attacks that came early in the race.

Those attacks are likely to increase.

"They're not talking issues, they're launching attacks," said Dan Allen, spokesman for the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee in Washington. "It's just gotten nastier, nastier, nastier."

Allen said he expects Deutsch, known in Washington for his combative style, to look toward Castor soon. "He doesn't play well in the sandbox," he said. "The conventional wisdom is that he will eventually set his sights on Castor."

Deutsch has criticized her for taking money from members of EMILY's List, a national group that favors female candidates who support abortion rights. But last week he declined to talk about specifics of his campaign, except to say that he wants to meet every voter in Florida. "I feel a lot of momentum," he said. "Every day I am picking up support."

Castor already faces accusations by the American Democracy Project, an independent group run by a longtime Deutsch friend, for failing to rid USF of suspected terrorist fundraisers.

The story is nothing new to Tampa Bay area residents, but the latest allegations are garnering intense attention in areas of Florida where potential voters are less familiar with former professor Sami Al-Arian, now under federal indictment and accused of raising money for a terrorist group.

"It changes everything," Schroth said.

The accusations about Al-Arian led Graham to come to Castor's defense last week.

Graham, former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he was confident Castor "acted appropriately" in the case.

It was the second time Graham has come to the aid of a Democrat hoping to succeed him. Both times he was asked to do so by the candidate, Graham spokesman Paul Anderson said.

The three-term senator also defended Penelas when Gore called the mayor "the single most treacherous and dishonest person" he encountered during the 2000 campaign.

Graham, who was out of the country last week and could not be reached for comment, has pledged to remain neutral in the primary but plans to be a "guardian of the facts" to maintain party unity. "He really does see himself as a referee," Anderson said.

Many voters have yet to focus on Florida's Senate race, especially with distractions like the presidential campaigns and the war in Iraq.

Penelas worries they won't start focusing until the end of August.

"We have polled extensively," he said. "The numbers simply have not changed in a year-and-a-half of running around the state of Florida. And they're not going to change until people start paying attention."

- Times staff writer Steve Bousquet contributed to this report. Anita Kumar can be reached at kumar@sptimes.com or 727 893-8472.

[Last modified July 4, 2004, 23:47:25]

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