Bush zeroes in on Jewish vote

The president is counting on his support of Israel to win over a voting bloc that has traditionally gone to Democrats.

TAMPA - President Bush's re-election campaign thinks it has a secret weapon for winning Florida's 27 electoral votes: the usually solid Democratic Jewish vote.

In a dead-even state, where an election can be won slicing off a few votes here and there, Republicans see Florida's roughly 500,000 Jewish voters as among their ripest opportunities.

Democrats warily acknowledge they could be right.

"I'm very worried about it," said Ginger Grossman, a Democratic activist in north Miami-Dade who said many Jewish voters are ready to reward Bush for his staunch support of Israel. "These are Democrats who are going to vote for Bush unless Kerry can turn this around."

Which is why John Kerry's brother spent much of this week meeting with Jewish voters across Florida.

"I'm here to tell you that John Kerry will stand up for Israel and he will not walk away," Cameron Kerry told nearly 100 people gathered Wednesday for a meeting in Tampa organized by attorney Barry Cohen. "George Bush has nothing on John Kerry when it comes to standing by Israel and being able to be an effective friend to Israel."

A mere 537 votes separated Bush and Al Gore in 2000, and polls show another neck-and-neck contest this year. Virtually any demographic group in Florida potentially could make the difference. Other than Florida's Hispanic voters, the Bush-Cheney campaign is targeting no demographic group more aggressively than Florida's Jewish population.

Few experts expect Bush to win a majority of the Jewish vote, but Republicans are confident he can add tens of thousands of Jewish votes to his column over four years ago.

"That's the unwritten story about Florida," said Bush-Cheney spokesman Reed Dickens. "If you just take (Jewish former vice presidential candidate) Joe Lieberman off the ticket, we get a jump. Then you add in the president's Israel policies and our grass roots effort - and we have a really effective organization focused on the Jewish community - and you can't help but get a big jump."

Exit polls in 2000 showed Bush won 19 percent of the Jewish vote nationwide. By some Republican estimates he won as few as one in 10 Jewish votes in Florida.

This year, though, Bush-Cheney allies and strategists are aiming for at least 30 percent of the Jewish vote in Florida and nationally.

That would not be unprecedented. Former President Reagan, who was seen as a strong ally of Israel, won nearly 40 percent of the Jewish vote nationally in 1980.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has called Bush the best friend Israel has had in the White House in modern history. In May, when the president spoke to the influential pro-Israel lobbying group American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), he was greeted with standing ovations and chants of "four more years!"

In Florida, the president's re-election campaign has been holding volunteer training sessions and other meetings with Jewish voters. Bush-Cheney campaign chairman Marc Racicot met with Jewish leaders in South Florida in March, and Vice President Dick Cheney addressed about 700 people at the Jewish Federation in Palm Beach County in May.

"You tapped our secret weapon," Pinellas Republican chairman Paul Bedinghaus said of the Jewish vote. "We're going to get 35 percent."

Democrats are taking the GOP targeting efforts seriously.

U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler, whose Palm Beach County district include one of the country's highest concentrations of Jewish residents, wrote a column for the Palm Beach Post Sunday, calling Bush a "fair weather friend" for Israel. He argued that the "quagmire in Iraq" threatens Israel's security, that the administration has done too little about more serious threats from Iran and that Bush has been too cozy with Saudi Arabia.

It will be a challenge for Democrats to hold one of the party's most loyal voting constituencies, Wexler said in an interview. "But I'm not going to stop telling people about John Kerry's perfect record on Israel for the next 31/2 months, and if Kerry-Edwards does their job right, Jewish voters will know about the incredibly strong record John Kerry has on Israel."

AIPAC says Kerry has a near-perfect pro-Israel voting record over 19 years in the Senate, and Kerry's recently released position paper mirrors Bush's Israel policies: both stand behind Israel's decision to erect a "security fence" along the West Bank; both stand behind Israel's attacks on suspected terrorists; both refuse to deal with Yasser Arafat.

But to some ardent supporters of Israel, Kerry has made inconsistent or worrisome statements during the campaign. In October, he described Israel's security fence as a "barrier to peace." He backpedaled from a December comment that he might send former President Carter and former Secretary of State Jame s Baker to work Middle East peace negotiations. Both are seen by some as weak advocates for Israel.

Norman Gross, president of a group called Promoting Responsibility in Middle East Reporting, describes himself as a longtime liberal Democrat who enthusiastically voted for Gore in 2000. This year, he said he expects to vote for Bush, whom he sees as the "more decisive" ally for Israel.

"I'm not a hyphenated American, but Israel and the survival of the Jewish people are a major concern. I lived through the Holocaust," said Gross, who said he knows few other Democratic Jews backing Bush.

Republicans have wrongly predicted gains among Jewish voters before. Bob Dole won just 16 percent of the Jewish vote in 1996, and in 1992 former President Bush won 11 percent. A number of analysts question how many single-issue voters will be swayed by Bush's strong relationship with Sharon, given Kerry's record on Israel and the liberal leanings many Jews have on social issues.

"Folks who care about this issue are very lucky to have two candidates with very strong records and positions on issues of concern to the pro-Israel community," said Josh Bloch of AIPAC. "It seems clear that the president will get a higher percentage of America's Jewish vote than he did in 2000, but it seems unlikely there will be a dramatic realignment."

Still, Democrats say they are taking nothing for granted.

Cameron Kerry, John Kerry's brother who converted to Judaism two decades ago, said the campaign is well aware that Republicans are targeting Jewish voters. "We're playing catch up."

-Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com

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