The Buzz: Florida politics 2004

Checkbooks start opening for Kerry

By Times staff writers
Published July 25, 2004

IT DIDN'T TAKE LONG for several of Florida's top Democratic fundraisers to jump into helping John Kerry after he locked up the nomination. Among the recent additions to Kerry's so-called "vice-chairs" who raised at least $100,000: Miami lobbyist and former Bob Graham supporter Chris Korge; former Joe Lieberman backer Mitchell Berger of Fort Lauderdale; Tampa attorney Barry Cohen; Orlando trial lawyer John Morgan; and Fort Lauderdale lawyer Alex Heckler.

The Kerry campaign, which raised $185-million through June, had 14 Floridians reaching the $100,000 threshold. The Bush campaign has at least 50 Floridians with similarly potent Rolodexes. Which explains why Kerry so far has raised less than $5-million from Florida, compared with more than $14-million for Bush, who all told has raised $225-million.

WHAT ELSE IS NEW? Florida's toss-up status still stands, according to two new statewide polls released last week. A July 19 and 20 InsiderAdvantage survey of 687 registered Florida voters showed Bush and Kerry tied at 46 percent each, with three percent backing "someone else" and five percent undecided. A July 19 to 21 Mason-Dixon poll of 625 registered voters showed Bush with 48 percent support, Kerry with 46 percent, independent candidate Ralph Nader with 2 percent and 4 percent undecided.

YES FLORIDA, YOU MATTER: Florida's delegation to the Democratic National Convention in Boston will find plenty of reminders of their importance. They are to be seated up close to the action, just behind the home state delegations of Massachusetts Sen. Kerry and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Democratic chairman Scott Maddox says speakers have been clamoring to address delegation breakfasts. Connecticut Sen. Lieberman and actor Ben Affleck are among the expected luminaries to meet with the delegation. Two prime-time convention speakers are also Floridians: Sen. Bob Graham on Wednesday and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami on Monday. U.S. Rep. Jim Davis is likely to speak late Thursday afternoon.

WET FOOT FORWARD: A potentially volatile subtext in the Republican U.S. Senate primary centers on U.S. policy toward Cuba.

The tighter restrictions on traveling and sending money to Cuba have divided the politically influential exile community, with many older Cubans supporting them and younger ones opposing it. Cubans of every age despise Fidel Castro, but some say it is unfair to punish exiles and their families by choking off cash payments and denying them the ability to reunite more than once every three years.

U.S. Senate candidate Mel Martinez, a Cuban-American, served on a commission that recommended the new, get-tough policy. Republican Doug Gallagher, who, like Martinez, hopes to draw support from Miami-Dade's large and influential Cuban community, also favors the tougher sanctions.

But Gallagher is much more critical than Martinez of the so-called "wet foot, dry foot" policy, which allows refugees to remain if they make it to shore but results in many others being intercepted at sea and sent back.

Gallagher's Web site emphasizes this distinction with a headline that says, "Martinez opens mouth and inserts a wet foot and a dry foot."

WAITING IN THE WINGS: If U.S. Rep. Jim Davis decides to run for governor, state Sen. Les Miller will be ready.

Miller, a Tampa Democrat who serves as the incoming minority leader in the Senate, says there is "over a 90 percent chance" he would run for Davis' House seat.

"It's something you always dream of," Miller said last week. "For African-Americans, the opportunity to win an election was never there. But things have changed."

Miller, who has spoken to Davis about their futures, said he would never run against his friend. Instead, he will wait until the beginning of the year, when he expects Davis to decide whether to run for governor in 2006.

Right now, Davis is running for re-election to Congress and is likely to coast to an easy victory. But he has been quietly laying the groundwork for a possible campaign for governor.

"He's still talking to his family," Miller said. "He's doing his homework."

THE WAY THE WIND BLOWS: The latest poll indicates that the U.S. Senate race may be Democrat Betty Castor versus Republican Bill McCollum in November.

Castor, former state education commissioner, maintains a double-digit lead in the Democratic primary, while McCollum, a former congressman, is just five points ahead of his closest Republican rival, according to a Mason-Dixon Florida Poll released Friday.

Castor had the support of 37 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch with 21 percent and Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas with 10 percent. Thirty-one percent were undecided.

McCollum had 29 percent and Martinez, Bush's former housing secretary, followed with 24 percent. The rest of the field was in single-digits.

The candidates are seeking to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham.

The telephone poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research among 387 likely Democratic voters and 374 likely Republican voters July 19 to 21. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

- Times staff writers Steve Bousquet, Adam C. Smith, Alisa Ulferts and Anita Kumar contributed to this week's column.

[Last modified July 25, 2004, 00:27:36]